Montaldo, Valentina

In their lengthy comment on Stucchi et al. (2011), Mucciarelli and Albarello (2012) propose opinions on aspects of the study that have been discussed and reviewed in countless circumstances in Italy and internationally, from the very beginning (2003) to the end (2009) of our research.

This paper describes the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard (PSHA) of Italy in view of the building codes from 2003 to 2009. A code was issued in 2003 as Prime Minister Ordinance, requiring that a PSHA for updating the seismic zoning would be performed in one year, in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, on hard ground. For the first time in Italy a working group, established by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), adopted a logic-tree approach to model the epistemic uncertainty in: the completeness of the earthquake catalog, the assessment of the seismicity rates and Mmax, and the ground motion prediction equations. The seismic hazard has been computed over a grid of more than 16,000 points for the median value (50th percentile), 84th and 16th percentiles of the 16 branches of the logic tree. Using the same input model, PGA values and spectral accelerations for 10 spectral periods were computed for 9 different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. This wealth of data made it possible to base the design spectra of a new building code on point hazard data instead of being related to just four zones. The 2009, Mw 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake has led many to attempt to test the reliability of this study. In this paper we analyze suggestions coming from that event and conclude that significant changes to the design spectra are not be recommended based just on evidence from the L’Aquila earthquake.

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L’introduzione di una versione aggiornata della mappa di pericolosità sismica, definita per diversi periodi di ritorno e per svariati valori di ordinate spettrali, porta inevitabilmente a dei cambiamenti sul livello di rischio sismico del costruito italiano. Poiché la relazione tra domanda e capacità non è lineare per tutto il range di periodi di vibrazione strutturale, è necessario valutare il cambiamento del livello di rischio sismico calcolando esplicitamente la vulnerabilità sismica di strutture esistenti con diversi periodi di vibrazione, per diversi stati limite e considerando sia la nuova che la precedente definizione di pericolosità. Nel presente lavoro è stato eseguito un primo studio degli effetti che l’introduzione di mappe aggiornate della pericolosità sismica potrebbe avere sulla valutazione dei livelli di rischio sismico nel territorio italiano. Le caratteristiche generali del costruito sono state ricavate dai dati del 14° Censimento Generale della Popolazione e delle Abitazioni (ISTAT 2001), mentre una procedura probabilistica di valutazione sismica per edifici esistenti a scala urbana è stata impiegata per stimare la capacità. Sono stati considerati tutti i tre stati limite prescritti dall’Ordinanza (danno lieve, danno severo, collasso) in corrispondenza dei rispettivi valori di domanda, così come il cambiamento delle forme spettrali in funzione della localizzazione e del periodo di ritorno. I risultati dimostrano che la nuova mappa di pericolosità sismica porta a dei livelli di rischio sismico più realistici e meno allarmanti, rendendo leggermente meno gravoso, anche se non privo di problematiche, il panorama attuale di rischio in Italia.

The probabilistic seismic hazard of Italy was assessed in 2004 to match the requirements of the new seismic provisions. This such map, now recognized as the official reference for design according to the building and administrative issues, is the result of a comprehensive seismic hazard model that takes into account the variability in seismicity, seismogenic potential, and propagation in different areas of Italy. Since 2004, we have computed seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration values for varied annual probabilities of exceedance, including a measure of their variability. These data allow as to: (1) compute site-specific seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra; (2) anchor the elastic response spectra; and (3) set seismological constraints on the limit states. These seismic hazard data are stored in a database, freely accessible to all end-users via the web, where they can be downloaded or consulted through a WebGIS tool.

A new hazard model for Italy has recently been proposed; hazard maps have been produced for various return periods, allowing the values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations for response periods up to 2 s to be interpolated for each of the 8,101 Italian municipalities. The new model allows for a more refined definition of the hazard in each municipality as compared to the current use of a fixed spectral shape anchored to upper bound 475-year PGA values and scaling factors for different return periods. The aim of this work is to investigate, in a preliminary fashion, the implications that the adoption of the new return-period dependent hazard maps would have on design and assessment of structures. To this end, the seismic performance of reinforced concrete frames of varying height is evaluated assuming they were located in each of the 8,101 municipalities in Italy and the results obtained with the current and the new hazard model are compared. The new model is shown to result in lower seismic risk in the majority of the municipalities.