Panara, Yuri

The prompt identification of faults responsible for moderate-to-large earthquakes is fundamental for understanding the likelihood of further, potentially damaging events. This is increasingly challenging when the activated fault is an offshore buried thrust, where neither coseismic surface ruptures nor GPS/InSAR deformation data are available after an earthquake. We show that on 9 November 2022, an Mw 5.5 earthquake offshore Pesaro ruptured a portion of the buried Northern Apennines thrust front (the Cornelia thrust system [CTS]). By post-processing and interpreting the seismic reflection profiles crossing this thrust system, we determined that the activated fault (CTS) is an arcuate 30-km-long, NW-SE striking, SW dipping thrust and that older structures at its footwall possibly influenced its position and geometry. The activation of adjacent segments of the thrust system is a plausible scenario that deserves to be further investigated to understand the full earthquake potential of this offshore seismogenic source.

In the last years, several studies investigated the Mt. Vettore Fault Zone (MVFZ), activated during the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence. Research has focused mainly on aftershocks and mainshock locations, coseismic slip and surface cracks, while an accurate study of the fracture network in the MVFZ was never conducted. In this study we present a fracture analysis performed using very high resolution (0.5 – 5 cm) Digital Outcrop Models (DOMs) that developed by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-based digital photogrammetry. The UAV gave the possibility to investigate outcrops with dimensions up to hundreds of metres high and wide, and acquire big and precise fracture data using 3D digital automatic and manual mapping techniques. To investigate the structural variability of the MVFZ fracture network, we realized several DOMs located in different positions, along and around the major fault. All the selected outcrops are formed by Calcare Massiccio Fm., which better records brittle deformation in the study area. This analysis aimed to better understand the MVFZ fracture network, including mechanics, kinematics and local structural evolution. In particular, it allowed to determine: 1) the main sets of fractures; 2) the geometrical parameters of the fracture network (e.g. fracture density, persistence, roughness and aperture); 3) the relative timing of the main tectonic brittle events. The preliminary analysis of the DOMs suggests a variability of the fracture network parameters over the MVFZ, especially for what concerned fracture set orientation and density.

When sedimentation rates overtake tectonic rates, the detection of ongoing tectonic deformation signatures becomes particularly challenging. The Northern Apennines orogen is one such case where a thick Plio-Pleistocene foredeep sedimentary cover blankets the fold-and-thrust belt, straddling from onshore (Po Plain) to offshore (Adriatic Sea), leading to subtle or null topo-bathymetric expression of the buried structures. The seismic activity historically recorded in the region is moderate; nonetheless, seismic sequences nearing magnitude 6 punctuated the last century, and even some small tsunamis were reported in the coastal locations following the occurrence of offshore earthquakes. In this work, we tackled the problem of assessing the potential activity of buried thrusts by analyzing a rich dataset of 2D seismic reflection profiles and wells in a sector of the Northern Apennines chain located in the near-offshore of the Adriatic Sea. This analysis enabled us to reconstruct the 3D geometry of eleven buried thrusts. We then documented the last 4 Myr slip history of four of such thrusts intersected by two high-quality regional cross-sections that were depth converted and restored. Based on eight stratigraphic horizons with well-constrained age determinations (Zanclean to Middle Pleistocene), we determined the slip and slip rates necessary to recover the observed horizon deformation. The slip rates are presented through probability density functions that consider the uncertainties derived from the horizon ages and the restoration process. Our results show that the thrust activation proceeds from the inner to the outer position in the chain. The slip history reveals an exponential reduction over time, implying decelerating slip-rates spanning three orders of magnitudes (from a few millimeters to a few hundredths of millimeters per year) with a major slip-rate change around 1.5 Ma. In agreement with previous works, these findings confirm the slip rate deceleration as a widespread behavior of the Northern Apennines thrust faults.