Burg, Jean-Pierre

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) project was carried out between 2010 and 2014 to provide a harmonized seismic hazard assessment without country border limitations. The result covers eleven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey, which span one of the seismically most active regions on Earth in response to complex interactions between four major tectonic plates i.e. Africa, Arabia, India and Eurasia. Destructive earthquakes with great loss of life and property are frequent within this region, as exemplified by the recent events of Izmit (Turkey, 1999), Bam (Iran, 2003), Kashmir (Pakistan, 2005), Van (Turkey, 2011), and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan, 2015). We summarize multidisciplinary data (seismicity, geology, and tectonics) compiled and used to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes over the investigated region. We describe the development process of the model including the delineation of seismogenic sources and the description of methods and parameters of earthquake recurrence models, all representing the current state of knowledge and practice in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting seismogenic source model includes seismic sources defined by geological evidence and active tectonic findings correlated with measured seismicity patterns. A total of 234 area sources fully cross-border-harmonized are combined with 778 seismically active faults along with background-smoothed seismicity. Recorded seismicity (both historical and instrumental) provides the input to estimate rates of earthquakes for area sources and background seismicity while geologic slip-rates are used to characterize fault-specific earthquake recurrences. Ultimately, alternative models of intrinsic uncertainties of data, procedures and models are considered when used for calculation of the seismic hazard. At variance to previous models of the EMME region, we provide a homogeneous seismic source model representing a consistent basis for the next generation of seismic hazard models within the region.

Earthquakes occur because fault friction weakens with increasing slip and slip rates. Since the slipping zones of faults are often fluid-saturated, thermo-mechanical pressurization of pore fluids has been invoked as a mechanism responsible for frictional dynamic weakening, but experimental evidence is lacking. We performed friction experiments (normal stress 25 MPa, maximal slip-rate ~3 ms-1) on cohesive basalt and marble under (1) room-humidity and (2) immersed in liquid water (drained and undrained) conditions. In both rock types and independently of the presence of fluids, up to 80% of frictional weakening was measured in the first 5 cm of slip. Modest pressurization-related weakening appears only at later stages of slip. Thermo-mechanical pressurization weakening of cohesive rocks can be negligible during earthquakes due to the triggering of more efficient fault lubrication mechanisms (flash heating, frictional melting, etc.). © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

A variety of seismic signals representing different physical mechanisms precedes volcanic eruptions. The most meaningful signals are high- and low-frequency earthquakes and volcanic tremor that have tentatively been related to fracturing and magma transport in the volcanic edifice. We provide experimental support for this association by reproducing magma migration while recording seismic signals. Opening fractures emit high-frequency acoustic events, while the switch to low frequency and harmonic tremor accompanies the flow of the melt in the fractures. Discerning between these seismic signals in nature can signifi cantly refine volcanic hazard evaluation.

A variety of seismic signals representing different physical mechanisms precedes volcanic eruptions. The most meaningful signals are high- and low-frequency earthquakes and volcanic tremor that have tentatively been related to fracturing and magma transport in the volcanic edifi ce. We provide experimental support for this association by reproducing magma migration while recording seismic signals. Opening fractures emit high-frequency acoustic events, while the switch to low frequency and harmonic tremor accompanies the fl ow of the melt in the fractures. Discerning between these seismic signals in nature can signifi cantly refi ne volcanic hazard evaluation.