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Authors: Peruzza, L.* 
Pace, B.* 
Visini, F.* 
Title: Fault-Based Earthquake Rupture Forecast in Central Italy: Remarks after the L'Aquila Mw 6.3 Event
Issue Date: 2011
Series/Report no.: /101 (2011)
DOI: 10.1785/0120090276
Keywords: seismic hazard
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology 
Abstract: In 2006 we published an earthquake hazard model called LASSCI (LAyered Seismogenic Source model in central Italy). In October 2008 we began to update the model for use in 5- and 10-year forecasts. The LASSCI–2006 model is supported by good fault-based definitions of seismogenic sources and simple phys- ically motivated models of earthquake occurrence; the LASSCI–2009 model has been improved by revision of the error propagation assumptions and increased accuracy of the earthquake probabilities. The 6 April 2009 earthquake that struck L’Aquila occurred on the model fault having the highest probability of occurrence in the 2009 revised LASSCI forecast: it is therefore consistent with our model assumptions. Furthermore, peak ground accelerations were in reasonable agreement with the values having 90% probability of not being exceeded in 50 yr. In the revised 2009 model, the aggregate probability of having a maximum-sized event in the next 5 yr on at least one of the neighboring sources (less than 25 km distance away) decreases in L’Aquila from 10% to 7% after the earthquake occurrence, but still remains a maximum there along the central Apennines. The LASSCI models 2006 and 2009, featuring charac- teristic fault sources and time dependence, seem to be suitable for guidance in recon- struction and seismic retrofit in the central Appenines.
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