Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9629
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Melini, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-05-27T13:24:11Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2015-05-27T13:24:11Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2014 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9629 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | American Geophysical Union | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Research Letters | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 23/41 (2014) | en |
dc.subject | fault interaction | en |
dc.subject | earthquake forecast | en |
dc.title | On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 8294-8300 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/2014GL061718 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0094-8276 | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1944-8007 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Melini, D. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5383-2375 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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GRL_marzocchi_melini_2014.pdf | 1.06 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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