Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9540
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dc.contributor.authorallBellucci, A.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallGualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallMasina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallStorto, A.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallScoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallCagnazzo, C.; CNR, Rome, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallFogli, P.G.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallManzini, E.; Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germanyen
dc.contributor.authorallNavarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-17T08:11:29Zen
dc.date.available2015-04-17T08:11:29Zen
dc.date.issued2013-03en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/9540en
dc.descriptionThe authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the EU FP7 COMBINE Project (Grant Agreement number 226520) and the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the Project GEMINA. Stimulating discussions with Jurgen Kro ̈ ger, Rein Haarsma and Andrea Borrelli, and insightful comments on the man- uscript by Panos Athanasiadis are also acknowledged.en
dc.description.abstractWe investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2006-2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2-5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEU FP7 COMBINE Project 226520 Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the Project GEMINAen
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameSpringer Verlag GMBH Germanyen
dc.relation.ispartofClimate dynamicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries5-6/40(2013)en
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://rd.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1468-z.pdfen
dc.subjectMERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATIONen
dc.subjectDATA ASSIMILATION SCHEMEen
dc.subjectNORTH-ATLANTICen
dc.subjectMULTIDECADAL VARIABILITYen
dc.subjectSURFACE-TEMPERATUREen
dc.subjectMULTIMODEL-ENSEMBLEen
dc.subjectSEA-ICEen
dc.subjectPREDICTABILITYen
dc.subjectOSCILLATIONen
dc.subjectSYSTEMen
dc.titleDecadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalysesen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber1483-1497en
dc.subject.INGV03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate modelsen
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-012-1468-zen
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dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico4A. Clima e Oceanien
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextopenen
dc.relation.issn0930-7575en
dc.relation.eissn1432-0894en
dc.contributor.authorBellucci, A.en
dc.contributor.authorGualdi, S.en
dc.contributor.authorMasina, S.en
dc.contributor.authorStorto, A.en
dc.contributor.authorScoccimarro, E.en
dc.contributor.authorCagnazzo, C.en
dc.contributor.authorFogli, P.G.en
dc.contributor.authorManzini, E.en
dc.contributor.authorNavarra, A.en
dc.contributor.departmentCtr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentCtr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentCNR, Rome, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentCtr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentMax Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germanyen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
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crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
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crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
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crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptCMCC, Italy-
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crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent03. Hydrosphere-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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