The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy

Abstract

On 6 April 2009, an Mw 6.2 earthquake struck beneath the city of L’Aquila, central Italy. The shock created significant damage and caused more than 300 deaths in the city and environs. The event followed a seismic sequence that started at the begin- ning of the year, with its largest shock of M w 4.2 occurring on 30 March. The 6 April earthquake became infamous worldwide because seven experts, who attended a Grandi Rischi Commis- sion meeting on 31 March, were convicted of failing to properly warn the public about the possibility of the mainshock and were sentenced to six years in jail. A second trial is in process. We do not wish to further discuss this important case here (in- stead see Marzocchi, 2012 and the website http://processoaquila .wordpress.com/; last accessed June 2014); however, it illustrates the importance of providing authoritative scientific information about earthquake probabilities to the public and other users and serves as a catalyst for the scientific developments now underway in Italy.