Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8958| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.authorall | Cappello, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Bilotta, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Neri, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Del Negro, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2014-03-03T11:46:30Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2014-03-03T11:46:30Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2013-05-08 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8958 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and (2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and 50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | This work was developed in the frame of the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT. | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.publisher.name | American Geophysical Union | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of geophysical research - solid earth | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | /118(2013) | en |
| dc.subject | Etna | en |
| dc.subject | probabilistic modeling | en |
| dc.subject | eruption | en |
| dc.title | Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna | en |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1925-1935 | en |
| dc.identifier.URL | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrb.50190/abstract | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/jgrb.50190 | en |
| dc.relation.references | Acocella, V., and M. Neri (2003), What makes flank eruptions? The 2001 Etna eruption and its possible triggering mechanisms, Bull. Volcanol., 65, 517–529, doi:10.1007/s00445-003-0280-3. Allard, P., B. Behncke, S. D’Amico, M. Neri, and S. Gambino (2006), Mount Etna 1993–2005: Anatomy of an evolving eruptive cycle, Earth- Sci. Rev., 78, 85–114, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.04.002. Alparone, S., B. Behncke, S. Giammanco, M. Neri, and E. Privitera (2005), Paroxysmal summit activity at Mt. Etna monitored through continuous soil radon measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16307, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023352. Bebbington, M. S. (2007), Identifying volcanic regimes using hidden Markov models, Geophys. J. Int., 171, 921–942, doi:10.1111/ j.1365-246X.2007.03559.x. Behncke, B., and M. Neri (2003), Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy), Can. J. Earth Sci., 40, 1405–1411, doi:10.1139/E03-052. Behncke, B., M. Neri, and R. Carniel (2003), An exceptional case of lava dome growth spawning pyroclastic avalanches at Mt. Etna (Italy): The 1999 Bocca Nuova eruption, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 124/1–2, 115–128, doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00072-6. Behncke, B., M. Neri, and G. Sturiale (2004), Rapid morphological changes at the summit of an active volcano: Reappraisal of the poorly documented 1964 eruption of Mount Etna (Italy), Geomorphology, 63/3–4, 203–218, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.04.004. Behncke, B., M. Neri, and A. Nagay (2005), Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy): New data from a GIS-based study, in Kinematics and dynamics of lava flows, edited by M. Manga and G. Ventura, Spec. Pap. Geol. Soc. Am., 396, 189–208, doi:10.1130/0-8137-2396-5.189(13). CAPPELLO ET AL.: PROBABILISTIC HAZARD MAPPING 1934 Behncke, B.,M. Neri, E. Pecora, and V. Zanon (2006), The exceptional activity and growth of the Southeast Crater, Mount Etna (Italy), between 1996 and 2001, Bull. Volcanol., 69, 149–173, doi:10.1007/s00445-006-0061-x. Bisson, M., B. Behncke, A. Fornaciai, and M. Neri (2009), Lidar-based digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion: The Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy), Natural Hazards, 50(2), 321–334, doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9346-7. Bonaccorso,A.,A. Bonforte, S. Calvari, C. DelNegro,G. DiGrazia, G.Ganci, M. Neri, A. Vicari, and E. Boschi (2011), The initial phases of the 2008–2009 Mt. Etna eruption: A multi-disciplinary approach for hazard assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B03203, doi:10.1029/2010JB007906. Brier, G. W. (1950), Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities, Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1–3, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001: VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2. Calvari, S., M. Neri, and H. Pinkerton (2003), Effusion rate estimation during the 1999 summit eruption on Mt. Etna, and growth of two distinct lava flow fields, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 119/1–4, 107–123, doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00308-6. Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011a), Assessment and modeling of lava flow hazard on Etna volcano, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 52(2), 299–308, doi:10.4430/bgta0003. Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011b), Retrospective validation of a lava flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano, Ann. Geophys., 54(5), 634–640, doi:10.4401/ag-5345. Cappello, A., M. Neri, V. Acocella, G. Gallo, A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2012), Spatial vent opening probability map of Mt Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 2083–2094, doi:10.1007/s00445- 012-0647-4. Clark, J., and F. C. Evans (1954), Distance to nearest neighbour as a measure of spatial relationships in populations, Ecology, 35, 445–453, doi:10.2307/1931034. Clocchiatti, R., M. Condomines, N. Guenot, and J. C. Tanguy (2004), Magma changes at Mount Etna: The 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 226, 397–414, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.07.039. Crisci, G. M., M. V. Avolio, B. Behncke, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, V. Lupiano, M. Neri, R. Rongo, and W. Spataro (2010), Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B04203, doi:10.1029/2009JB006431. Favalli, M., S. Tarquini, A. Fornaciai, and E. Boschi (2009), A new approach to risk assessment of lava flow at Mount Etna, Geology, 37(12), 1111–1114, doi:10.1130/G30187A. Ganci, G., A. J. L. Harris, C. Del Negro, Y. Guehenneux, A. Cappello, P. Labazuy, S. Calvari, and M. Gouhier (2012a), A year of lava fountaining at Etna: Volumes from SEVIRI, Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06305, doi:10.1029/2012GL051026. Ganci, G., A. Vicari, A. Cappello, and C. Del Negro (2012b), An emergent strategy for volcano hazard assessment: From thermal satellite monitoring to lava flow modeling, Remote Sens. Environ., 119, 197–207, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.12.021. Giammanco, S., K. W. W. Sims, and M. Neri (2007), Measurements of 220Rn and 222Rn and CO2 emissions in soil and fumarole gases on Mt. Etna volcano (Italy): Implications for gas transport and shallow ground fracture, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 8, Q10001, doi:10.1029/ 2007GC001644. Greco, F., G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, R. Napoli, G. Budetta, M. Fedi, and E. Boschi (2010), Spatiotemporal gravity variations to look deep into the southern flank of Etna volcano, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B11411, doi:10.1029/2009JB006835. Guest, J. E. (1973), The summit area of Mount Etna prior to the 1971 eruption, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A, 274, 63–78. Guest, J. E., and J. B. Murray (1979), An analysis of hazard from Mount Etna volcano, J. Geol. Soc. London, 136, 347–354, doi:10.1144/ gsjgs.136.3.0347. Hughes, J. W., J. E. Guest, and A. M. Duncan (1990), Changing styles of effusive eruption on Mount Etna since AD 1600, in Magma Storage and Ascent, edited by M. P. Ryan, pp. 385–406, John Wiley, Chichester. Imbo, G. (1928), Sistemi eruttivi etnei, Bulletin Volcanologique, Series I, 5, 89–119. Imbo, G. (1965), Catalog of Active Volcanoes of the World, 28, Italy, IAVCEI, 18, 1–72. Istituto Geografico Militare (1934), Cono Terminale del Monte Etna, Settembre 1932, Anno X. scala 1:5000. Lanzafame, G., M. Neri, and D. Rust (1996), Active Tectonics Affecting the Eastern Flank of Mount Etna: Structural Interactions at Regional and Local Scale, in Etna: Fifteen Years On, edited by P. H. Gravestock and W. J. McGuire, pp. 25–33, Cheltenham and Gloucester College of Higher Education, Centre for Volcanic Research, Cheltenham, U.K. Magill, C. R., K. J. McAneney, and I. E. M. Smith (2005), Probabilistic assessment of vent locations for the next Auckland volcanic field event, Mathematical Geol., 37(3), 227–242, doi:10.1007/s11004-005-1556-2. McGuire, W. J., and A. D. Pullen (1989), Location and orientation of eruptive fissures and feeder dykes at Mount Etna; influence of gravitational and regional tectonic stress regimes, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 38, 325–344, doi:10.1016/0377-0273(89)90046-2. Monaco, C., and L. Tortorici (2000), Active faulting in the Calabrian arc and eastern Sicily, J. Geodynamics, 29, 407–424, doi:10.1016/S0264- 3707(99)00052-6. Mulargia, F., S. Tinti, and E. Boschi (1985), A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna Volcano, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 23, 263–272. Napoli, R., G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, F. Greco, and D. Scandura (2008), Volcanomagnetic evidence of the magmatic intrusion on 13th May 2008 Etna eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22301, doi:10.1029/ 2008GL035350. Neri, M., F. Mazzarini, S. Tarquini, M. Bisson, I. Isola, B. Behncke, and M. T. Pareschi (2008), The changing face of Mount Etna’s summit area documented with LiDAR technology, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09305, doi:10.1029/2008GL033740. Neri, M., F. Casu, V. Acocella, G. Solaro, S. Pepe, P. Berardino, E. Sansosti, T. Caltabiano, P. Lundgren, and R. Lanari (2009), Deformation and eruptions at Mt. Etna (Italy): A lesson from 15 years of observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02309, doi:10.1029/2008GL036151. Neri, M., V. Acocella, B. Behncke, S. Giammanco, F. Mazzarini, and D. Rust (2011), Structural analysis of the eruptive fissures at Mount Etna (Italy), Ann. Geophys., 54(5), 464–479, doi:10.4401/ag-5332. Newhall, C. G. (2000), Volcano warnings, in Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, edited by H. Sigurdsson, pp. 1185–1197, Academic Press, San Diego. Rongo, R., M. V. Avolio, B. Behncke, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio, V. Lupiano, M. Neri, W. Spataro, and G. M. Crisci (2011), Defining high detailed hazard maps by a cellular automata approach: Application to Mt. Etna (Italy), Ann. Geophys., 54(5), 568–578, doi:10.4401/ag-5340. Salvi, F., R. Scandone, and C. Palma (2006), Statistical analysis of the historical activity of Mount Etna, aimed at the evaluation of volcanic hazard, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 154, 159–168. Sartorius von Waltershausen, W. (1880), Der Aetna, edited by A. von Lasaulx. W. Engelmann, Leipzig, Germany. Scifoni, S., M. Coltelli, M. Marsella, C. Proietti, Q. Napoleoni, A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2010), Mitigation of lava flow invasion hazard through optimized barrier configuration aided by numerical simulation: The case of the 2001 Etna eruption, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 192, 16–26, doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.02.002. Smethurst, L., M. R. James, H. Pinkerton, and J. A. Tawn (2009), A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily, Geophys. J. Int., 179, 655–666, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04286.x. Solaro, G., V. Acocella, S. Pepe, J. Ruch, M. Neri, and E. Sansosti (2010), Anatomy of an unstable volcano through InSAR data: Multiple processes affecting flank instability at Mt. Etna in 1994–2008, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B10405, doi:10.1029/2009JB000820. Sparks, R. S. J. (2003), Forecasting volcanic eruptions, Earth Planet, Sci. Lett., 210, 1–15, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9. Tanguy, J. C., M. Le Goff, C. Principe, S. Arrighi, V. Chillemi, A. Paiotti, S. La Delfa, and G. Patanè (2003), Archeomagnetic dating of Mediterranean volcanics of the last 2100 years: Validity and limits, Earth Planet, Sci. Lett., 211, 111–124, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00186-9. Tanguy, J.-C., M. Condomines, M. Le Goff, V. Chillemi, S. Le Delfa, and G. Patanè (2007), Mount Etna eruptions of the last 2,750 years: Revised chronology and location through archeomagnetic and 226Ra-230Th dating, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 55–83, doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0121-x. Vicari, A., G. Bilotta, S. Bonfiglio, A. Cappello, G. Ganci, A. Hérault, E. Rustico, G. Gallo, and C. Del Negro (2011a), LAV@HAZARD: A Web-Gis interface for volcanic hazard assessment, Ann. Geophys., 54, 5, doi:10.4401/ag-5347. Vicari, A., G. Ganci, B. Behncke, A. Cappello, M. Neri, and C. Del Negro (2011b), Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13317, doi:10.1029/2011GL047545. Wadge, G. (1977), The storage and release of magma on Mount Etna, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 2, 361–384. Wadge, G., G. P. L. Walker, and J. E. Guest (1975), The output of the Etna volcano, Nature, 255, 385–387, doi:10.1038/255385a0. Wadge, G., P. A. V. Young, and I. J. Mckendrick (1994), Mapping lava flow hazards using computer simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 489–504, doi:10.1029/93JB01561. Worton, B. J. (1995), Using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate kernel– based home range estimators, J. Wild. Manag., 59, 794–800. | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4V. Vulcani e ambiente | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici | en |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
| dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
| dc.relation.issn | 0148-0227 | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Cappello, A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Bilotta, G. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Neri, M. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Del Negro, C. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | en |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OE, Catania, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9947-8789 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1406-4545 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5890-3398 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5734-9025 | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | Existing users please Login |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Cappello Bilotta Neri Del Negro JGR.pdf | Main Article | 2.99 MB | Adobe PDF |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
38
checked on Feb 10, 2021
Page view(s) 10
330
checked on Apr 20, 2024
Download(s) 50
89
checked on Apr 20, 2024
