Time variability of low-temperature fumaroles at Stromboli island (Italy) and its application to volcano monitoring

Abstract

The constant and mild activity of Stromboli volcano (Italy) is occasionally interrupted by effusive events and/or more energetic explosions, referred to as major explosions and paroxysms, which are potentially dangerous for the human community. Although several premonitory signals for effusive phases have been identified, precursors of major explosions and paroxysms still remain poorly understood. With the aim of contributing to the identification of possible precursors of energetic events, this work discusses soil temperature data acquired in low-temperature fumaroles at Stromboli in the period 2006–2010. Data analysis revealed that short-term anomalies recorded in the thermal signal are potentially useful in predicting state changes of the volcano. In particular, sudden changes in fumarole temperatures and their hourly gradients were observed from several days to a few hours prior to fracturing and paroxysmal events, heralded by peculiar waveforms of the recorded signals. The qualitative interpretation is supported by a quantitative, theoretical treatment that uses circuit theory to explain the time dependence of the short-period temperature variations, showing a good agreement between theoretical and observational data.