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Authors: Scoccimarro, E.* 
Gualdi, S.* 
Zampieri, M.* 
Bellucci, A.* 
Navarra, A.* 
Title: Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models
Issue Date: 2013
Series/Report no.: 20/26 (2013)
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00850.1
Keywords: precipitation
extreme events
climate change
Subject Classification01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate 
Abstract: In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.
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