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Authors: Pohlmann, H.* 
Smith, D. M.* 
Balmaseda, M. A.* 
Keenlyside, N. S.* 
Masina, S.* 
Matei, D.* 
Muller, W. A.* 
Rogel, P.* 
Title: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system
Journal: Climate dynamics 
Series/Report no.: /41 (2013)
Publisher: Springer Verlag GMBH Germany
Issue Date: 2013
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
Keywords: Decadal prediction 􏰁 Atlantic MOC 􏰁 Predictability 􏰁 Multi-model comparison
Subject Classification01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate 
03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models 
03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability 
Abstract: Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of obser- vations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal corre- lates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.
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