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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8588
Authors: | Pohlmann, H.* Smith, D. M.* Balmaseda, M. A.* Keenlyside, N. S.* Masina, S.* Matei, D.* Muller, W. A.* Rogel, P.* |
Title: | Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system | Journal: | Climate dynamics | Series/Report no.: | /41 (2013) | Publisher: | Springer Verlag GMBH Germany | Issue Date: | 2013 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6 | Keywords: | Decadal prediction Atlantic MOC Predictability Multi-model comparison | Subject Classification: | 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability |
Abstract: | Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of obser- vations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal corre- lates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions. |
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