Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8572
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dc.contributor.authorallGarcia-Aristizabal, A.; AMRAen
dc.contributor.authorallSelva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallFujita, E.; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Preventionen
dc.date.accessioned2013-03-26T13:09:21Zen
dc.date.available2013-03-26T13:09:21Zen
dc.date.issued2013-02-12en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/8572en
dc.description.abstractEruption forecasting refers, in general, to the assessment of the occurrence probability of a given erup- tive event, whereas volcanic hazards are normally associated with the analysis of superficial and evident phenomena that usually accompany eruptions (e.g., lava, pyroclastic flows, tephra fall, lahars, etc.). Nevertheless, several hazards of volcanic origin may occur in noneruptive phases dur- ing unrest episodes. Among others, remarkable examples are gas emissions, phreatic explosions, ground deforma- tion, and seismic swarms. Many of such events may lead to significant damages, and for this reason, the “risk” associ- ated to unrest episodes could not be negligible with respect to eruption-related phenomena. Our main objective in this paper is to provide a quantitative framework to calculate probabilities of volcanic unrest. The mathematical frame- work proposed is based on the integration of stochastic mod- els based on the analysis of eruption occurrence catalogs into a Bayesian event tree scheme for eruption forecast- ing and volcanic hazard assessment. Indeed, such models are based on long-term eruption catalogs and in many cases allow a more consistent analysis of long-term tem- poral modulations of volcanic activity. The main result of this approach is twofold: first, it allows to make inferences about the probability of volcanic unrest; second, it allows to project the results of stochastic modeling of the eruptive history of a volcano toward the probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazards. To illustrate the performance of the pro- posed approach, we apply it to determine probabilities of unrest at Miyakejima volcano, Japan.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameSpringer Berlin Heidelbergen
dc.relation.ispartofBulletin of volcanologyen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/75(2013)en
dc.subjectVolcanic unresten
dc.subjectEruption forecastingen
dc.subjectBayesian event treeen
dc.subjectStochastic modelsen
dc.subjectMiyakejima volcanoen
dc.titleIntegration of stochastic models for long-term eruption forecasting into a Bayesian event tree scheme: a basis method to estimate the probability of volcanic unresten
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.description.pagenumber689en
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risken
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00445-013-0689-2en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanicaen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextopenen
dc.relation.issn0258-8900en
dc.relation.eissn1432-0819en
dc.contributor.authorGarcia-Aristizabal, A.en
dc.contributor.authorSelva, J.en
dc.contributor.authorFujita, E.en
dc.contributor.departmentAMRAen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Preventionen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-9196-8452-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-6263-6934-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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