Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8568
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.authorall | Selva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Argyroudis, S.; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Pitilakis, k.; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-03-26T12:01:02Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2013-03-26T12:01:02Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2013-03-04 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8568 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Fragility curves (FCs) constitute an emerging tool for the seismic risk assessment of all elements at risk. They express the probability of a structure being damaged beyond a specific damage state for a given seismic input motion parameter, incorporating the most important sources of uncertainties, that is, seismic demand, capacity and definition of damage states. Nevertheless, the implementation of FCs in loss/risk assessments introduces other important sources of uncertainty, related to the usually limited knowledge about the elements at risk (e.g., inventory, typology). In this paper, within a Bayesian framework, it is developed a general methodology to combine into a single model (Bayesian combined model, BCM) the information provided by multiple FC models, weighting them according to their credibility/ applicability, and independent past data. This combination enables to efficiently capture inter-model variability (IMV) and to propagate it into risk/loss assessments, allowing the treatment of a large spectrum of vulnerability-related uncertainties, usually neglected. As case study, FCs for shallow tunnels in alluvial deposits, when subjected to transversal seismic loading, are developed with two conventional procedures, based on a quasi-static numerical approach. Noteworthy, loss/risk assessments resulting from such conventional methods show significant unexpected differences. Conventional fragilities are then combined in a Bayesian framework, in which also probability values are treated as random variables, characterized by their probability density functions. The results show that BCM efficiently projects the whole variability of input models into risk/loss estimations. This demonstrates that BCM is a suitable framework to treat IMV in vulnerability assessments, in a straightforward and explicit manner. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Springer Science+Business Media B.V. | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Natural Hazards | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /67 (2013) | en |
dc.subject | Fragility curves | en |
dc.subject | Bayesian approach | en |
dc.subject | Epistemic uncertainty | en |
dc.subject | Inter-model variability | en |
dc.subject | Seismic risk | en |
dc.title | Impact on loss/risk assessments of inter-model variability in vulnerability analysis | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 723-746 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s11069-013-0616-z | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0921-030X | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1573-0840 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Selva, J. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Argyroudis, S. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pitilakis, k. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | en |
dc.contributor.department | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Aristotle University of Thessaloniki | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6263-6934 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8131-3038 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Selvaetal_FINAL.pdf | final submitted file | 665.21 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
20
9
checked on Feb 7, 2021
Page view(s)
145
checked on Apr 17, 2024
Download(s) 50
226
checked on Apr 17, 2024