Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8546
Authors: Marzocchi, W.* 
Newhall, C.* 
Woo, G.* 
Title: The scientific management of volcanic crises
Journal: Journal of volcanology and geothermal research 
Series/Report no.: /247-248(2012)
Publisher: Elsevier Science Limited
Issue Date: 2012
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.08.016
Keywords: eruption forecasting
decision making
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
Abstract: Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely com- plicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational miti- gation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.
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