On the multi-fractal characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic field before the 1993 Guam earthquake

Abstract

Ida et al. (2005) document significant changes in the multi-fractal parameters of the ULF geomagnetic field H component starting about one month before the 1993 Guam earthquake. According to the authors, these multi-fractal signatures can be considered as precursory signals of the Guam earthquake. As a consequence, they conclude that the multifractal analysis may have an important role in the development of short-term earthquake prediction capabilities. Since this and other similar reports have motivated the idea that earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic precursory signals may one day become a routine technique, the presumed precursors need to be validated through independent datasets. In this review the seismogenic origin of the multifractal magnetic signatures documented by Ida et al. (2005) before the 8 August 1993 Guam earthquake is seriously put into question. By means of the geomagnetic ΣKp index, it is demonstrated that these multi-fractal parameter changes are normal signals induced by the variation of the global geomagnetic activity level.