Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8222
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Fujita, E.; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-16T12:59:46Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2012-10-16T12:59:46Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2012-03 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8222 | en |
dc.description.abstract | The definition of probabilistic models as mathematical structures to describe the response of a volcanic system is a plausible approach to characterize the temporal behavior of volcanic eruptions, and constitutes a tool for long-term eruption forecasting. This kind of approach is motivated by the fact that volcanoes are complex systems in which a com- pletely deterministic description of the processes preceding eruptions is practically impos- sible. To describe recurrent eruptive activity we apply a physically-motivated probabilistic model based on the characteristics of the Brownian passage-time (BPT) distribution; the physical process defining this model can be described by the steady rise of a state variable from a ground state to a failure threshold; adding Brownian perturbations to the steady load- ing produces a stochastic load-state process (a Brownian relaxation oscillator) in which an eruption relaxes the load state to begin a new eruptive cycle. The Brownian relaxation os- cillator and Brownian passage-time distribution connect together physical notions of unob- servable loading and failure processes of a point process with observable response statistics. The Brownian passage-time model is parameterized by the mean rate of event occurrence, μ , and the aperiodicity about the mean, α . We apply this model to analyze the eruptive his- tory of Miyakejima volcano, Japan, finding a value of 44.2(±6.5 years) for the μ parameter and 0.51(±0.01) for the (dimensionless) α parameter. The comparison with other models often used in volcanological literature shows that this pysically-motivated model may be a good descriptor of volcanic systems that produce eruptions with a characteristic size. BPT is clearly superior to the exponential distribution and the fit to the data is comparable to other two-parameters models. Nonetheless, being a physically-motivated model, it provides an insight into the macro-mechanical processes driving the system. | en |
dc.description.sponsorship | INGV - Sezione di Bologna; Universita' di Bologna - Marco Polo program | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Springer Berlin Heidelberg | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Bulletin of volcanology | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /74 (2012) | en |
dc.relation.isversionof | http://www.springerlink.com/content/f877878r8426rl28/ | en |
dc.subject | Probabilistic models; Brownian passage-time distribution; | en |
dc.subject | Hazard function; Miyakejima volcano | en |
dc.title | A Brownian Model for Recurrent Volcanic Eruptions: an Application to Miyakejima Volcano (Japan) | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 545-558 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00445-011-0542-4 | en |
dc.relation.references | Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr AC 19:716– 723 Bain LJ (1978) Statistical analysis of reliability and life-testing models, Theory and Methods. Marcel Dekker, New York Bebbington MS, Lai CD (1996a) On nonhomogeneous models for volcanic eruptions. Math Geol 28:585–600 Bebbington MS, Lai CD (1996b) Statistical analysis of new zealand volcanic occurrence data. J Vol- canol Geotherm Res 74:101–110 Bowers N, Gerber H, Hickman J, Jones D, Nesbitt C (1997) Actuarial Mathematics, 2nd edn. Society of Actuaries Burt ML, Wadge G, Scott WA (1994) Simple stochastic modelling of the eruption history of a basaltic vol- cano: Nyamuragira, Zaire. Bull Volcanol 56:87–97 Coles S, Sparks R (2006) Extreme value methods for modeling historical series of large volcanic magni- tudes. In: Mader H, Coles S, Connor C, Connor L (eds) Statistics in Volcanology, IAVCEI Publications, Geological Society, London, pp 47–56 Connor CB, Sparks RSJ, Mason RM, Bonadonna C (2003) Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: The soufriere hills volcano, montserrat. Geophys Res Lett 30(13), DOI 10.1029/2003GL017384 Cox DR, Lewis PAW (1966) The statistical analysis of Series of Events. Mathuen, New York De la Cruz-Reyna S (1991) Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity. Bull Volcanol 54:57–67 Ellsworth WL, Matthews MV, Nadeau RM, Nishenko SP, Reasenberg PA, Simpson RW (1999) A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities. U S Geol Surv Open-File Rept pp 99–522 Ho C (1991) Nonhomogeneous Poisson model for volcanic eruptions. Math Geol 23(2):167–173 Ho CH (1996) Volcanic time-trend analysis. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 74(3-4):171–177 Klein F (1982) Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 12(1-2):1–35, DOI 10.1016/0377-0273(82)90002-6 Marzocchi W, Zaccarelli L (2006) A quantitative model for time-size distribution of eruptions. J Geophys Res 111(B04204), DOI 10.1029/2005JB003709 Matthews M, Ellsworth W, Reasenberg P (2002) A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am 92(6):2233–2250, DOI 10.1785/0120010267 Mulargia F, Tinti S (1985) Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogs: An application to the italian territory. Phys Earth Planet Inter 40(4):273–300 Mulargia F, Tinti S, Boschi E (1985) A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano. J Vol- canol Geotherm Res 23(3-4):263–272 Mulargia F, Gasperini P, Tinti E (1987) Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 34(1-2):89–106 Nakada S, Nagai M, Kaneko T, Nozawa A, Suzuki-Kamata K (2005) Chronology and prod- ucts of the 2000 eruption of Miyakejima volcano, Japan. Bull Volcanol 67(3):205–218, URL http://www.springerlink.com/content/cj0d4tkcfamr7f32 Newhall C, Self S (1982) The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): An estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J Geophys Res 87(C2):1231–1238 Ogata Y (1999) Estimating the hazard of ruptire using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthquakes. J Geo- phys Res 104(B8):17,995–18,014 Sandri L, Marzocchi W, Gasperini P (2005) Some insights on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). Geophys J Int 163(3):1203–1218 Simkin T, Siebert L (2002 onwards) Volcanoes of the World: an Illustrated Catalog of Holocene Volca- noes and their Eruptions. Smithsonian Institution, Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series, GVP-3, (http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/) Tsukui M, Suzuki Y (1998) Eruptive history of Miyakejima volcano during the last 7000 years. Bull Vol- canol Soc Japan 43:149–166 Ueda H, Fujita E, Ukawa M, Yamamoto E, Irwan M, Kimata F (2005) Magma intrusion and discharge process at the initial stage of the 2000 activity of Miyakejima, Central Japan, inferred from tilt and GPS data. Geophys J Int 161(3):891–906, DOI 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02602.x Watt SFL, Mather TA, Pyle DM (2007) Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability. Geology 35(9):839–842, DOI 10.1130/G23562A.1 Wickman FE (1976) Markov models of repose-period patterns of volcanoes, in: Random Process in Geology, Springer, New York, pp 135–161 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0258-8900 | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1432-0819 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Garcia-Aristizabal, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Fujita, E. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-9196-8452 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 05. General | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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BullVolFinalVersion_GarciaMarzocchiFujita.pdf | Preprint - Main article | 1.29 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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