Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8215
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Bebbington, M.; Volcanic Risk SOlutions, University Massey, New Zealand | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-16T10:30:00Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2012-10-16T10:30:00Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8215 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strat- egy requires a scientific assessment of the future evo- lution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic pre- dictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all avail- able information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to pri- oritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time–space–magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Springer Berlin Heidelberg | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Bulletin of volcanology | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /74(2012) | en |
dc.subject | eruption forecasting | en |
dc.subject | volcanic hazard | en |
dc.title | Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 1777-1805 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00445-012-0633-x | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0258-8900 | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1432-0819 | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bebbington, M. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Volcanic Risk SOlutions, University Massey, New Zealand | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Volcanic Risk Solutions, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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BV_marzocchi_bebbington_12.pdf | 1.09 MB | Adobe PDF |
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