Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8079
Authors: Cappello, A.* 
Neri, M.* 
Acocella, V.* 
Gallo, G.* 
Vicari, A.* 
Del Negro, C.* 
Title: Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)
Journal: Bulletin of volcanology 
Series/Report no.: /74 (2012)
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Issue Date: 2-Sep-2012
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4
URL: http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4
Keywords: Flank eruption
Dike
Volcano structure
Susceptibility map
Spatial clustering
Back analysis
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology 
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 
05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
Abstract: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.
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