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Geodetic strain rate and earthquake size: new clues for seismic hazard studies
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/206-207 (2012)
ISSN
0031-9201
Electronic ISSN
1872-7395
Publisher
Elsevier Science Limited
Pages (printed)
67-75
Issued date
September 2012
Abstract
Earthquakes deliver in few seconds the elastic energy accumulated in hundreds of years. Where and
when will be the next earthquake remains a difficult task due to the chaotic behaviour of seismicity
and the present lack of available tools to measure the threshold of the crustal strength.
However, the analysis of the background strain rate in Italy and the comparison with seismicity shows
that larger earthquakes occur with higher probability in areas of lower strain rate. We present a statistical
study in which a relationship linking the earthquake size (magnitude) and the total strain rate (SR) is
found. We combine the information provided by the Gutenberg–Richter law (GR) of earthquake occurrence
and the probability density distribution of SR in the Italian area. Following a Bayesian approach,
we found a simple family of exponential decrease curves describing the probability that an event of a
given size occurs within a given class of SR. This approach relies on the evidence that elastic energy accumulates
in those areas where faults are locked and the SR is lower. Therefore, in tectonically active areas,
SR lows are more prone to release larger amount of energy with respect to adjacent zones characterised
by higher strain rates. The SR map of Italy, compared with 5 years seismicity supports this result and may
become a powerful tool for identifying the areas more prone to the next earthquakes.
when will be the next earthquake remains a difficult task due to the chaotic behaviour of seismicity
and the present lack of available tools to measure the threshold of the crustal strength.
However, the analysis of the background strain rate in Italy and the comparison with seismicity shows
that larger earthquakes occur with higher probability in areas of lower strain rate. We present a statistical
study in which a relationship linking the earthquake size (magnitude) and the total strain rate (SR) is
found. We combine the information provided by the Gutenberg–Richter law (GR) of earthquake occurrence
and the probability density distribution of SR in the Italian area. Following a Bayesian approach,
we found a simple family of exponential decrease curves describing the probability that an event of a
given size occurs within a given class of SR. This approach relies on the evidence that elastic energy accumulates
in those areas where faults are locked and the SR is lower. Therefore, in tectonically active areas,
SR lows are more prone to release larger amount of energy with respect to adjacent zones characterised
by higher strain rates. The SR map of Italy, compared with 5 years seismicity supports this result and may
become a powerful tool for identifying the areas more prone to the next earthquakes.
References
Anzidei, M., Boschi, E., Cannelli, V., Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Galvani, A., Melini, D., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., 2009. Coseismic deformation of the destructive April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (central Italy) from GPS data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L17307, doi:10.1029/2009GL039145.
Avallone, A., Selvaggi,G., D'Anastasio, E., D'Agostino, N., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F.,Serpelloni, E., Anzidei, M., Casula, G., Cecere, G., D'Ambrosio, C., DeMartino, P., Devoti, R., Falco, L., Mattia,M., Rossi, M., Obrizzo, F., Tammaro, U., Zarrilli, L., 2010. The RING network: improvement of a GPS velocity field in the central Mediterranean. Ann. Geophys., 53 (2), 39–54.
Basili, R., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Burrato, P., Fracassi, U., Mariano, S., Tibert,i M.M., Boschi, E., 2008. The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology. Tectonophysics, 453, 20–43.
Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1954. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 2nd ed. Princeton, N.J.:,Princeton University Press.
Bird, P., Kreemer, C., Holt, W.E., 2010. A long-term forecast of shallow seismicity based on the Global Strain Rate Map. Seismol. Res. Lett., 81 (2), 184-194, 10.1785/gssrl.81.2.184.
Blewitt, G., Lavallée, D., 2002. Effect of annual signals on geodetic velocity. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (B7), 10.1029/2001JB000570.
Borghi, A., Aoudia, A., Riva, R.E.M., Barzaghi, R., 2009. GPS monitoring and earthquake prediction: A success story towards a useful integration. Tectonophysics, 465, 1-4, 177-189.
Caporali, A., Barba, S., Carafa, M.M.C., Devoti, R., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Static stress drop as determined from geodetic strain rates and statistical seismicity. J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02410.
Carminati, E., Doglioni, C., Barba, S. 2004. Reverse migration of seismicity on thrusts and normal faults. Earth Sci. Rev., 65, 195–222.
Cavalié, O., Lasserre, C., Doin, M.-P., Peltzer, G., Sun, J., Xud, X., Shen, Z.-K., 2008. Measurement of interseismic strain across the Haiyuan fault (Gansu, China), by InSAR. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 275, 246–257.
Chiarabba, C., Jovane, L., Di Stefano, R., 2005. A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics, 395, 251-268.
Chiarabba, et al., 2009. The 2009 L’Aquila (central Italy) MW 6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18308, doi:10.1029/2009GL039627.
Dal Piaz, G.V., 2010. The Italian Alps: a journey across two centuries of Alpine geology. J. Virtual Explorer ISSN 1441-8142, 36.
Devoti, R., Riguzzi, F., Cuffaro, M., Doglioni, C., 2008. New GPS constraints on the kinematics of the Apennines subduction. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 273,163-174.
Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Pietrantonio, G., Pisani, A.R., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Evidence of large scale deformation patterns from GPS data in the Italian subduction boundary. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 311, 230-241.
Devoti, R., Anderlini, L., Anzidei, M., Esposito, A., Galvani, A., Pietrantonio, G., Pisani, A.R., Riguzzi, F., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., 2012. The coseismic and postseismic deformation of the L'Aquila, 2009 earthquake from repeated GPS measurements. Italian Journal of Geoscience, in press.
Dixon, T., Decaix, J., Farina, F., Furlong, K., Malservisi, R., Bennett, R., Suarez-Vida,l F., Fletcher, J., Lee, J., 2002. Seismic cycle and rheological effects on estimation of present-day slip rates for the Agua Blanca and San Miguel-Vallecitos faults, northern Baja California, Mexico. J. Geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2226, doi:10.1029/2000JB000099.
Doglioni, C., 1991. A proposal of kinematic modelling for W-dipping subductions - Possible applications to the Tyrrhenian - Apennines system. Terra Nova, 3, 4, 423-434.
Doglioni, C., Barba, S., Carminati, E., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Role of the brittle–ductile transition on fault activation. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 184, 160–171.
Doglioni, C., Barba, S., Carminati, E., Riguzzi, F., 2012. Strain rate gradient as an indicator of seismic loading triggered by the brittle-ductile transition and fluids response. Submitted to Tectonophysics.
Fialko, Y., 2006. Interseismic strain accumulation and the earthquake potential on the southern San Andreas fault system. Nature, 441, 968-971.
Hammond, W.C., Kreemer, C., Blewitt, G., Plag, H.P, 2010. Effect of viscoelastic postseismic relaxation on estimates of interseismic crustal strain accumulation at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06307.
Koch, K.R., 1990. Bayesian inference with geodetic data. Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, N. 31, Springer.
Kreemer, C., Holt, W.E., Haines, A.J., 2003. An integrated global model of present‐day plate motions and plate boundary deformation. Geophys. J. Int., 154, 8–34, doi:10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01917.x.
Liu, M., Yang, Y., Stein, S., Zhu, Y., Engeln, J., 2000. Crustal shortening in the Andes: Why do GPS rates differ from geological rates?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 18, 3005-3008.
Loveless, J.P., Meade, B.J., 2011. Spatial correlation of interseismic coupling and coseismic rupture extent of the 2011 M(W) = 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17306, doi:10.1029/2011GL048561.
Lundgren, P., Hetland, E.A., Liu, Z., Fielding, E.J., 2009. Southern San Andreas-San Jacinto fault system slip rates estimated from earthquake cycle models constrained by GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations. J. Geophys. Res., 114, B02403, doi:10.1029/2008JB005996.
Mignan, A., Di Giovambattista, R., 2008. Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L15306, doi:10.1029/2008GL035024.
Pondrelli, S., Salimbeni, S., Morelli, A., Ekström, G., Postpischl, L., Vannucci, G., Boschi, E., 2011. European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog: solutions for 2005-2008. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 185, 3-4, 74-81.
Savage, J.C., Prescott, W.H., 1978. Asthenosphere readjustment and the earthquake cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 83, 3369– 3376.
Sansò, F., de Lacy, M.C., 2006. The Bayesian approach applied to significant deformation identification. In Geodetic Deformation Monitoring: From Geophysical to Engineering Roles, International Association of Geodesy Symposia, Jaen March 2005, vol. 131, 200-208 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Shen, Z.K., Jackson, D.D., Ge, B.X., 1996. Crustal deformation across and beyond the Los Angeles basin from geodetic measurements. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 27, 957-27,980.
Shen, Z.K., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., 2007. Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast of M5 earthquakes in Southern California. Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 116–120.
Stein, S., 1992. Seismic gaps and grizzly bears. Nature, 356, 387-388.
Valensise, G., Pantosti, D., Basili, R., 2004. Seismology and Tectonic Setting of the 2002 Molise, Italy. Earthquake Spectra, 20, S23-S37.
Wessel, P., Smith, W.H.F., 1998. New, improved version of Generic Mapping Tools released. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 79 (47), 579.
Wiemer, S., Wyss, M., 2002. Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. Advances in Geophysics, 45, 259-302.
Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A., Panza, G.F., 2011. Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory. Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 69-83.
Avallone, A., Selvaggi,G., D'Anastasio, E., D'Agostino, N., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F.,Serpelloni, E., Anzidei, M., Casula, G., Cecere, G., D'Ambrosio, C., DeMartino, P., Devoti, R., Falco, L., Mattia,M., Rossi, M., Obrizzo, F., Tammaro, U., Zarrilli, L., 2010. The RING network: improvement of a GPS velocity field in the central Mediterranean. Ann. Geophys., 53 (2), 39–54.
Basili, R., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Burrato, P., Fracassi, U., Mariano, S., Tibert,i M.M., Boschi, E., 2008. The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology. Tectonophysics, 453, 20–43.
Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., 1954. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 2nd ed. Princeton, N.J.:,Princeton University Press.
Bird, P., Kreemer, C., Holt, W.E., 2010. A long-term forecast of shallow seismicity based on the Global Strain Rate Map. Seismol. Res. Lett., 81 (2), 184-194, 10.1785/gssrl.81.2.184.
Blewitt, G., Lavallée, D., 2002. Effect of annual signals on geodetic velocity. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (B7), 10.1029/2001JB000570.
Borghi, A., Aoudia, A., Riva, R.E.M., Barzaghi, R., 2009. GPS monitoring and earthquake prediction: A success story towards a useful integration. Tectonophysics, 465, 1-4, 177-189.
Caporali, A., Barba, S., Carafa, M.M.C., Devoti, R., Pietrantonio, G., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Static stress drop as determined from geodetic strain rates and statistical seismicity. J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02410.
Carminati, E., Doglioni, C., Barba, S. 2004. Reverse migration of seismicity on thrusts and normal faults. Earth Sci. Rev., 65, 195–222.
Cavalié, O., Lasserre, C., Doin, M.-P., Peltzer, G., Sun, J., Xud, X., Shen, Z.-K., 2008. Measurement of interseismic strain across the Haiyuan fault (Gansu, China), by InSAR. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 275, 246–257.
Chiarabba, C., Jovane, L., Di Stefano, R., 2005. A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics, 395, 251-268.
Chiarabba, et al., 2009. The 2009 L’Aquila (central Italy) MW 6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18308, doi:10.1029/2009GL039627.
Dal Piaz, G.V., 2010. The Italian Alps: a journey across two centuries of Alpine geology. J. Virtual Explorer ISSN 1441-8142, 36.
Devoti, R., Riguzzi, F., Cuffaro, M., Doglioni, C., 2008. New GPS constraints on the kinematics of the Apennines subduction. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 273,163-174.
Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Pietrantonio, G., Pisani, A.R., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Evidence of large scale deformation patterns from GPS data in the Italian subduction boundary. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 311, 230-241.
Devoti, R., Anderlini, L., Anzidei, M., Esposito, A., Galvani, A., Pietrantonio, G., Pisani, A.R., Riguzzi, F., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., 2012. The coseismic and postseismic deformation of the L'Aquila, 2009 earthquake from repeated GPS measurements. Italian Journal of Geoscience, in press.
Dixon, T., Decaix, J., Farina, F., Furlong, K., Malservisi, R., Bennett, R., Suarez-Vida,l F., Fletcher, J., Lee, J., 2002. Seismic cycle and rheological effects on estimation of present-day slip rates for the Agua Blanca and San Miguel-Vallecitos faults, northern Baja California, Mexico. J. Geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2226, doi:10.1029/2000JB000099.
Doglioni, C., 1991. A proposal of kinematic modelling for W-dipping subductions - Possible applications to the Tyrrhenian - Apennines system. Terra Nova, 3, 4, 423-434.
Doglioni, C., Barba, S., Carminati, E., Riguzzi, F., 2011. Role of the brittle–ductile transition on fault activation. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 184, 160–171.
Doglioni, C., Barba, S., Carminati, E., Riguzzi, F., 2012. Strain rate gradient as an indicator of seismic loading triggered by the brittle-ductile transition and fluids response. Submitted to Tectonophysics.
Fialko, Y., 2006. Interseismic strain accumulation and the earthquake potential on the southern San Andreas fault system. Nature, 441, 968-971.
Hammond, W.C., Kreemer, C., Blewitt, G., Plag, H.P, 2010. Effect of viscoelastic postseismic relaxation on estimates of interseismic crustal strain accumulation at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06307.
Koch, K.R., 1990. Bayesian inference with geodetic data. Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, N. 31, Springer.
Kreemer, C., Holt, W.E., Haines, A.J., 2003. An integrated global model of present‐day plate motions and plate boundary deformation. Geophys. J. Int., 154, 8–34, doi:10.1046/j.1365-246X.2003.01917.x.
Liu, M., Yang, Y., Stein, S., Zhu, Y., Engeln, J., 2000. Crustal shortening in the Andes: Why do GPS rates differ from geological rates?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 18, 3005-3008.
Loveless, J.P., Meade, B.J., 2011. Spatial correlation of interseismic coupling and coseismic rupture extent of the 2011 M(W) = 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17306, doi:10.1029/2011GL048561.
Lundgren, P., Hetland, E.A., Liu, Z., Fielding, E.J., 2009. Southern San Andreas-San Jacinto fault system slip rates estimated from earthquake cycle models constrained by GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations. J. Geophys. Res., 114, B02403, doi:10.1029/2008JB005996.
Mignan, A., Di Giovambattista, R., 2008. Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L15306, doi:10.1029/2008GL035024.
Pondrelli, S., Salimbeni, S., Morelli, A., Ekström, G., Postpischl, L., Vannucci, G., Boschi, E., 2011. European-Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog: solutions for 2005-2008. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 185, 3-4, 74-81.
Savage, J.C., Prescott, W.H., 1978. Asthenosphere readjustment and the earthquake cycle. J. Geophys. Res., 83, 3369– 3376.
Sansò, F., de Lacy, M.C., 2006. The Bayesian approach applied to significant deformation identification. In Geodetic Deformation Monitoring: From Geophysical to Engineering Roles, International Association of Geodesy Symposia, Jaen March 2005, vol. 131, 200-208 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Shen, Z.K., Jackson, D.D., Ge, B.X., 1996. Crustal deformation across and beyond the Los Angeles basin from geodetic measurements. J. Geophys. Res. 101, 27, 957-27,980.
Shen, Z.K., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., 2007. Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast of M5 earthquakes in Southern California. Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 116–120.
Stein, S., 1992. Seismic gaps and grizzly bears. Nature, 356, 387-388.
Valensise, G., Pantosti, D., Basili, R., 2004. Seismology and Tectonic Setting of the 2002 Molise, Italy. Earthquake Spectra, 20, S23-S37.
Wessel, P., Smith, W.H.F., 1998. New, improved version of Generic Mapping Tools released. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 79 (47), 579.
Wiemer, S., Wyss, M., 2002. Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. Advances in Geophysics, 45, 259-302.
Zuccolo, E., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A., Panza, G.F., 2011. Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory. Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, 69-83.
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