Sea level change along the Italian coast during the Holocene and projections for the future

Abstract

Published and new sea level data are used to provide projections of sea level change in Italy for the year 2100 by adding new isostatic and tectonic component to the IPCC and Rahmstorf projections. Comparison of the observations from more than 130 sites (with different geomorphological and archaeological sea level markers) with the predicted sea level curves provides estimates of the vertical tectonic contribution to the relative sea level change. The results are based on the most recent ANU model for the ice sheets of both hemispheres, including an alpine deglaciation model. On the basis of the eustatic, tectonic and isostatic components to the sea level change, projections are provided for marine inundation scenarios for the Italian coastal plains for the year 2100, that today are at elevations close to current sea level.