Assessment and modeling of lava flow hazard on Mt. Etna volcano

Abstract

A methodology for constructing a probability map of lava inundation by considering the past eruptive behavior of the Mt. Etna volcano is described. The basic a priori assumption is that new vents will not form far from existing ones and that such a distribution can be performed using a Gaussian kernel. The methodology follows several steps: computation of a susceptibility map that provides the spatial probability of vent opening; evaluation of the temporal probability for the occurrence of the hazard during the considered time interval; characterization of the expected eruptions; numerical simulations of lava flow paths and elaboration of the hazard map. The application of MAGFLOW code, a physical-mathematical model, for simulating the lava flow paths represents the central part of this methodology for the hazard assessment at Mt. Etna. The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, provides a more robust and locally accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach and accounts for the influence of the actual topography on the path of future lava flows.