Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Authors: Azzaro, R.* 
D'Amico, S.* 
Peruzza, L.* 
Tuvè, T.* 
Title: Earthquakes and faults at Mt. Etna (Southern Italy): problems and perspectives for a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in a volcanic region
Issue Date: 2012
Series/Report no.: 1/53(2012)
DOI: 10.4430/bgta0038
Keywords: Mt. Etna
fault-based seismic hazard
time-dependent estimate
Brownian Passage Time
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
Abstract: We investigated the seismic potential of a given set of faults in the Etna region, by analysing the inter-event times of major earthquakes as given by the earthquake catalogue. Among the active structures of the volcano, the Timpe fault system in the eastern flank is responsible for the largest earthquakes occurring in historical time, with long-term behaviour characterised by earthquake rates of ~ 20 years for severe/destructive events (epicentral intensity I0 ≥ VIII EMS). By means of coseismic effect analyses and thanks to the peculiarity of earthquake source in this volcanic district, we associated the seismic events to the individual seismogenic sources, obtaining the seismic history of each fault. Mean recurrence time of major events referred to a specific fault can therefore be defined. Then, we calculated the probabilities of occurrence of destructive events both with Poisson and Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models. A time-dependent BPT distribution function has been used to calculate the conditional occurrence probability for each structure of the Timpe seismogenic zone. In a memoryless perspective, the probability of having a major earthquake on individual faults is about 7% in 5 years, while it changes from fault to fault if the probability is conditioned to the time elapsed since the last event. As a result, impending earthquakes are expected on the S. Tecla fault (11%), and on Moscarello and Fiandaca faults (~ 6-9%), all involved in the complex dynamics of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. These results are consistent with those independently obtained through the site approach, calculated by the SASHA code.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
bgta0038_AZZARO.pdfMain article767.37 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

Last Week
Last month
checked on Aug 18, 2018


checked on Aug 18, 2018

Google ScholarTM