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Authors: Brancato, A.* 
Gresta, S.* 
Alparone, S.* 
Andronico, D.* 
Bonforte, A.* 
Caltabiano, T.* 
Cocina, O.* 
Corsaro, R. A.* 
Cristofolini, R.* 
Di Grazia, G.* 
Distefano, G.* 
Ferlito, C.* 
Gambino, S.* 
Giammanco, S.* 
Greco, F.* 
Napoli, R.* 
Sandri, L.* 
Selva, J.* 
Tusa, G.* 
Viccaro, M.* 
Title: Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)
Issue Date: 2011
Series/Report no.: 5/54(2011)
DOI: 10.4401/ag-5346
Keywords: Volcano monitoring
Statistical analysis
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring 
Abstract: Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ‘precursor’ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.
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