Italian Map of Design Earthquakes from Multimodal Disaggregation Distributions: Preliminary Results.

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis allows to calculate the mean annual rate of exceedance of ground motion intensity measures given the seismic sources the site of interest is subjected to. This piece of information may be used to define the design seismic action on structures. Moreover, through disaggregation of seismic hazard, it is possible to identify the earthquake giving the largest contribution to the hazard related to a specific IM value. Such an information may also be of useful to engineers in better defining the seismic treat for the structure of interest (e.g., in record selection for nonlinear seismic structural analysis). On the other hand, disaggregation results change with the spectral ordinate and return period, and more than a single event may dominate the hazard, especially if multiple sources affect the hazard at the site. In this work disaggregation for structural periods equal to 0 sec and 1.0 sec is presented for Italy, with reference to the hazard with a 475 year return period. It will be discussed how for the most of Italian sites more than a design earthquake exist, because of the modelling of seismic sources.