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Lava flow susceptibility map of mt etna based on numerical simulations
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Status
Published
Pages Number
201-206
Refereed
Yes
Issued date
2010
Keywords
Abstract
We constructed maps of probability of lava inundation using computer simulations
considering the past eruptive behaviour of the Mt. Etna volcano and data
deriving from monitoring networks. The basic a priori assumption is that new
volcanoes will not form far from existing ones and that such a distribution can
be performed using a Cauchy kernel. Geophysical data are useful to update or
fine tune the initial Cauchy kernel to better reflect the distribution of future
volcanism. In order to obtain a final susceptibility map, a statistical analysis
permits a classification of Etna’s flank eruptions into twelve types. The simulation
method consists of creating a probability surface of the location of future
eruption vents and segmenting the region according to the most likely historical
eruption on which to base the simulation. The paths of lava flows were
calculated using the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model, allowing us
to simulate the discharge rate dependent spread of lava as a function of time.
considering the past eruptive behaviour of the Mt. Etna volcano and data
deriving from monitoring networks. The basic a priori assumption is that new
volcanoes will not form far from existing ones and that such a distribution can
be performed using a Cauchy kernel. Geophysical data are useful to update or
fine tune the initial Cauchy kernel to better reflect the distribution of future
volcanism. In order to obtain a final susceptibility map, a statistical analysis
permits a classification of Etna’s flank eruptions into twelve types. The simulation
method consists of creating a probability surface of the location of future
eruption vents and segmenting the region according to the most likely historical
eruption on which to base the simulation. The paths of lava flows were
calculated using the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model, allowing us
to simulate the discharge rate dependent spread of lava as a function of time.
Type
book chapter
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