Towards an improved seismic risk scenario for Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

Abstract

A risk scenario for Bishkek, capital of the Kyrgyz Republic, is evaluated by considering a magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurring over the Issyk-Ata fault.The intensity values predicted through the application of an attenuation relationship and a recently compiled vulnerability composition model are used as inputs for seismic risk assessment, carried out using the CREST (Cedim Risk Estimation Tool) code. Although the results of this study show a reduction by as much as a factor of two with respect to the results of earlier studies, the risk scenario evaluated in this paper confirms the large number of expected injuries and fatalities in Bishkek, as well as the severe level of building damage. Furthermore, the intensity map has also been evaluated by performing stochastic simulations. The spectral levels of the ground shaking are converted into intensity values by applying a previously derived conversion technique. The local site effects are empirically estimated considering the spectral ratios between the earthquakes recorded by a temporary network deployed in Bishkek and the recordings at two reference sites. Although the intensities computed via stochastic simulations are lower than those estimated with the attenuation relationship, the simulations showed that site effects, which can contribute to intensity increments as large as 2 units in the north part of the town, are playing an important role in altering the risk estimates for different parts of the town.