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Authors: Basili, R.* 
Akinci, A.* 
Title: Deliverable # D3.01.4 Probability of occurrence for earthquakes generated by individual faults and the associated uncertainties
Issue Date: 30-May-2010
Series/Report no.: INGV-DPC 2007-2009 S1
Keywords: active fault
earthquake probability
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology 
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
Abstract: Probabilities and uncertainties were calculated based on the approach developed by Akinci et al. (2008). The method was applied to the whole Italian territory using a dataset that integrates individual seismogenic sources derived from both geological/geophysical data and macroseismic data (see Basili et al., 2008, for definitions). We designed two model approaches: one that uses geological slip rates; another that uses slip rates derived from the finite element model developed by Barba et al, 2007. As for recurrence we adopted the Poisson and the Renewal BPT models with aperiodicity a equal to 0.3, 0.5 and 0.7, all for a prediction in the next 30 years. Complete results of these procedures are given in tabular form at the end of this document.
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