Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6435
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dc.contributor.authorallPassarelli, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallSandri, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallBonazzi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallMarzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.date.accessioned2010-12-21T10:59:08Zen
dc.date.available2010-12-21T10:59:08Zen
dc.date.issued2010-06en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/6435en
dc.description.abstractThe physical processes responsible for volcanic eruptions are characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom, often non-linearly coupled. This extreme complexity leads to an intrinsic deterministic unpredictability of such events that can be satisfactorily described by a stochastic process. Here, we address the long-term eruption forecasting of open conduit volcanoes through a Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling information in the catalogue of past eruptions, such as the time of occurrence, the duration, and the erupted volumes. The aim of the model is twofold: (1) to get new insight about the physics of the process, using the model to test some basic physical hypotheses of the eruptive process and (2) to build a stochastic model for long-term eruption forecasting; this is the basic component of Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment that is used for rational land use planning and to design Emergency plan. We apply the model to Kilauea eruption occurrences and check its feasibility to be included in Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofGeophysical Journal Internationalen
dc.relation.ispartofseries3/181 (2010)en
dc.subjectProbabilistic forecastingen
dc.subjectEffusive volcanismen
dc.titleBayesian Hierarchical Time Predictable Model for eruption occurrence: an application to Kilauea Volcanoen
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber1525–1538en
dc.subject.INGV05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysisen
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04582.xen
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico3.6. Fisica del vulcanismoen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextreserveden
dc.contributor.authorPassarelli, L.en
dc.contributor.authorSandri, L.en
dc.contributor.authorBonazzi, A.en
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, W.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptGerman Research Centre for Geosciences-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-3254-2336-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9114-1516-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent05. General-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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