Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6419
Authors: | Lombardi, A. M.* Marzocchi, W.* |
Title: | The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment | Journal: | Annals of Geophysics | Series/Report no.: | 3/53 (2010) | Issue Date: | 2010 | DOI: | 10.4401/ag-4848 | Keywords: | Forecasting Aftershocks |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | Abstract: | This paper investigates the basic properties of the recent shallow seismicity in Italy through stochastic modeling and statistical methods. Assuming that the earthquakes are the realization of a stochastic point process, we model the occurrence rate density in space, time and magnitude by means of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. By applying the maximum likelihood procedure, we estimates the parameters of the model that best fit the Italian instrumental catalog, recorded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) from April 16th 2005 to June 1st 2009. Then we apply the estimated model on a second independent dataset (June 1st 2009- Sep 1st 2009). We find that the model performs well on this second database, by using proper statistical tests. The model proposed in the present study is suitable for computing earthquake occurrence probability in real time and to take part in international initiatives such as the Collaboratory Study for Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Specifically we have submitted this model for the daily forecasting of Italian seismicity above Ml4.0. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
ANNALI_Lombardi_and_Marzocchi_CSEP_ETAS.doc.pdf | Main article | 5.65 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
50
21
checked on Feb 10, 2021
Page view(s) 50
405
checked on Apr 24, 2024
Download(s) 5
1,115
checked on Apr 24, 2024