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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/638
Authors: | Rossano, S.* Mastrolorenzo, G.* De Natale, G.* |
Title: | Numerical simulation of pyroclastic density currents on Campi Flegrei topography: a tool for statistical hazard estimation. | Journal: | Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research | Series/Report no.: | 132 | Publisher: | Elsevier | Issue Date: | 2004 | DOI: | 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00384-6 | Keywords: | Campi flegrei calderas pyroclastic flows hazard maps |
Subject Classification: | 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk |
Abstract: | We describe a numerical simulation of both concentrated and dilute gravity-driven pyroclastic flows on a digital topographic model of the Campi Flegrei volcanic field. Families of numerical flows are generated by sampling a multi-dimensional matrix of vent coordinates, flow properties and dynamical parameters within a wide range of values. Hazard maps are constructed from the data base of simulated flows, using a mixed deterministic^statistical approach. The set of probable vents covers the area of recent eruptions. Results show the key role of topography in controlling the flow dispersion. The maximum hazard appears to be the NE sector of the caldera. Flows in the eastern sector, including the city of Naples, are shown to be efficiently hindered by the Posillipo and Camaldoli hills at the caldera borders, thus reducing the hazard. The results represent the first physically based estimate of hazard from pyroclastic flows in this densely populated area, and can be used for civil defence purposes. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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