Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6069
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dc.contributor.authorallSelva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallCosta, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallMarzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallSandri, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-02T07:08:12Zen
dc.date.available2010-07-02T07:08:12Zen
dc.date.issued2010en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/6069en
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameSpringer Berlin / Heidelbergen
dc.relation.ispartofBull Volcanolen
dc.relation.ispartofseries6/72 (2010)en
dc.subjectVolcanic hazarden
dc.subjectAsh fall ·en
dc.subjectBayesian event treeen
dc.subjectCampi Flegreien
dc.titleBET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)en
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber717-733en
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risken
dc.subject.INGV05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysisen
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7en
dc.relation.referencesBarberi F, Macedonio G, Pareschi MT, Santacroce R (1990) Mapping the tephra fallout risk: an example from Vesuvius (Italy). Nature 344:142–144 Barberi F, Principe C, Rosi M, Santacroce R (1995) Scenario dell’evento eruttivo massimo atteso al Vesuvio in caso di riattivazione a breve-medio termine (Aggiornamento al 20.1.1995). CNR, Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia, Confidential Report to DPC, 19 pp Barberi F, Davis MS, Isaia R, Nave R, Ricci T (2008) Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 172:244–258 Bonadonna C, Costa A (2010) Modeling of tephra sedimentation from volcanic plumes. In: Fagents SA, Gregg TKP, Lopes RMC (eds) Modeling volcanic processes: the physics and mathematics of volcanism (in press) Bonadonna C, Macedonio G, Sparks RSJ (2002) Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrire Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London Mem 21. Geological Society, London, pp 517–537 Cioni R, Longo A, Macedonio G, Santacroce R, Sbrana A, Suplizio R, Andronico D (2003) Assessing pyroclastic fall hazard through field data and numerical simulations: example from Vesuvius. J Geophys Res 108:2063. doi:10.1029/ 2001JB000642 Costa A, DellErba F, Di Vito MA, Isaia R, Macedonio G, Orsi G, Pfeiffer T (2009) Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Bull Volcanol 71:259–273. doi:10.1007/s00445-008-0220-3 DPC (Dipartimento Protezione Civile) (1995) Pianificazione Nazionale d’Emergenza dell’Area Vesuviana. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Roma DPC/INGV Project V3 (2004–2006) Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk. Sub-Project V3_2 Campi Flegrei Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB (1995) Bayesian data analysis. CRC, Boca Raton Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, Zhang Z, et al (2000) Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J Clim 13:4196–4216 Lindsay J, Marzocchi W, Jolly G, Constantinescu R, Selva J, Sandri L (2010) Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland volcanic field: testing of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’. Bull Volcanol 72:185–204. doi:10.1007/s00445- 009-0311-9 Macedonio G, Costa A, Longo A (2005) A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput Geosci 31:837–845 Macedonio G, Costa A, Folch A (2008) Ash fallout at Vesuvius: numerical simulations and implication for hazard assessment. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 178:366–377 Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2008) BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull Volcanol 70:623–632. doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y Marzocchi W, Sandri L, Selva J (2010) BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-time volcanic hazard assessment. Bull Volcanol. doi:10.1007/s00445-010-0357-8 MarzocchiW, Sandri L, Gasparini P, Newhall C, Boschi E (2004) Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius. J Geophys Res 109:B11201. doi:10.1029/2004JB003155 Newhall CG, Hoblitt RP (2002) Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20 Orsi G, Di Vito MA, Isaia R (2004) Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera. Bull Volcanol 66:514– 530. doi:10.1007/s00445-003-0336-4 Orsi G, di Vito MA, Selva J, Marzocchi W (2009) Long-term forecast of eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Earth Planet Sci Lett 287:265–276 Pfeiffer T, Costa A, Macedonio G (2005) A model for the numerical simulation of tephra fall deposits. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 140:273–294 Sandri L, Guidoboni E, Marzocchi W, Selva J (2009) Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to 1631 eruption. Bull Volcanol 71:729–745. doi:10.1007/ s00445-008-0261-7 Selva J, Di Vito M, Marzocchi W, Orsi G, Quaglino M, Sandri L (2007) Probability map of vent opening at Campi Flegrei, Italy. In: Abstracts of the IUGG XXIV general assembly, 2–13/7/2007, Perugia (Italy) (Asbtract number VS008 6778) Simkin T, Siebert L (1994) Volcanoes of the world. Geoscience Press, Tucsonen
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanicaen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextopenen
dc.contributor.authorSelva, J.en
dc.contributor.authorCosta, A.en
dc.contributor.authorMarzocchi, W.en
dc.contributor.authorSandri, L.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-6263-6934-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-4987-6471-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9114-1516-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-3254-2336-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.classification.parent05. General-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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