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Authors: Selva, J.* 
Costa, A.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
Sandri, L.* 
Title: BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)
Issue Date: 2010
Series/Report no.: 6/72 (2010)
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7
Keywords: Volcanic hazard
Ash fall ·
Bayesian event tree
Campi Flegrei
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.
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