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Authors: Crisci, G.* 
Avolio, M. V.* 
Behncke, B.* 
D'Ambrosio, D.* 
Di Gregorio, S.* 
Lupiano, V.* 
Neri, M.* 
Romgo, R.* 
Spataro, W.* 
Title: Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy
Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research 
Series/Report no.: /115(2010)
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Issue Date: 28-Apr-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2009JB006431
Keywords: lava flows
volcanic hazard
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 
05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous 
Abstract: Forecasting the time, nature, and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions are fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high‐resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land use and civil defense planning in the long term, to quantify, in real time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.
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