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Authors: Marzocchi, W.* 
Lombardi, A. M.* 
Title: Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters 
Series/Report no.: /36(2009)
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Issue Date: 2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040233
Keywords: earthquake forecast
L'Aquila earthquake
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
Abstract: We describe the results of a prospective, real-time earthquake forecast experiment made during a seismic emergency. A $M_w$ 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009, causing hundreds of deaths and vast damage. Immediately following this event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection -- the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic model that combines the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. The results from the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake exhibit a good fit between forecasts and observations, indicating that accurate earthquake forecasting is now a realistic goal. Our experience with this experiment demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish -- before crises -- quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support.
Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.
Appears in Collections:Article published / in press

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