Near-Earth space plasma modelling and forecasting

Abstract

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects.