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Authors: Faenza, L.* 
Hainzl, S.* 
Scherbaum, F.* 
Title: Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity
Issue Date: 29-May-2009
Series/Report no.: 3-4/470 (2009)
DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2008.04.030
Keywords: Earthquake Distribution
Earthquake Forecast
Spatio-temporal statistical analysis
Central Europe
Subject Classification05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of Central-Europe seismicity. Specifically, by using a non-parametric statistical approach, the proportional hazard model, leading to an empirical estimation of the hazard function, we provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanisms. The results indicate that the most conspic- uous characteristics of MW 4.0+ earthquakes is a temporal clustering lasting a couple of years. This suggests that the probability of occurrence increases immediately after a previous event. After a few years, the process becomes almost time independent. Furthermore, we investigate the cluster properties of the seismicity of Central-Europe, by comparing the obtained result with the one of synthetic catalogs generated by the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model, which previously have been successfully applied for short term clustering. Our results indicate that the ETAS is not well suited to describe the seismicity as a whole, while it is able to capture the features of the short- term behaviour. Remarkably, similar results have been previously found for Italy using a higher magnitude threshold.
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