Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Authors: Zollo, A.* 
Iannaccone, G.* 
Lancieri, M.* 
Cantore, L.* 
Convertito, V.* 
Emolo, A.* 
Festa, G.* 
Gallovič, F.* 
Martino, C.* 
Satriano, C.* 
Gasparini, P.* 
Title: Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation
Issue Date: 27-Feb-2009
Series/Report no.: /36 (2009)
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036689
Keywords: Seismic early warning
Southern Italy
Synthetic seismograph
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
Abstract: We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
GRL-2009-EW.pdf838.57 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

Last Week
Last month
checked on Aug 20, 2018


checked on Aug 20, 2018

Google ScholarTM