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dc.contributor.authorallImoto, M.; National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki-ken, Japanen
dc.description.abstractWe constructed a model of earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in Kanto, central Japan, based on three parameters: the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the ν- parameter of changes in mean event size. In our method, two empirical probability densities for each parameter, those associated with target events (conditional density distributions) and those not associated with them (background density distributions), are defined and assumed to have a normal distribution. Therefore, three parameters are transformed by appropriate relations so that new parameters are normally distributed. The retrospective analysis in the learning period and the prospective test of testing period demonstrated that the proposed model performs better by about 0.1 units in terms of the information gain per event than the value summed up with those of the three parameters. The results are confirmed by a simulation with randomly selected model parameters.en
dc.relation.ispartofAnnals of Geophysicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries4/51 (2008)en
dc.subjectseismicity modelen
dc.subjectinformation gainen
dc.subjectGutenberg-Richter relationen
dc.titlePerformance of a seismicity model based on three parameters for earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in Kanto, central Japanen
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneousen
dc.relation.referencesAKI, K. (1981): A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena, in Earthquake Prediction, edited by D.W. SIMPSON and P.G. RICHARDS, 566-574, Agu. DALEY, D. J. and D. VERE-JONES (2003): An introduction to the theory of point processes, vol. 1, Elementary theory and methods, Second edition, (Springer, New York), pp. 469. GRANDORI, G., E. GUAGENTI and F. PEROTTI (1988): Alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 78, 1538-1549. HAMADA, K. (1983): A probability model for earthquake prediction, Earthquake Prediction Res., 2, 227-234. IMOTO, M. (2003): A testable model of earthquake probability based on changes in mean event size, J. Geophys. Res., 108, ESE 7.1-12 No. B2, 2082, doi:10.1029/ 2002JB001774. IMOTO, M. (2004): Probability gains expected for renewal process models, Earth Planets Space, 56, 563-571. IMOTO, M. (2006): Statistical models based on the Gutenberg- Richter a and b values for estimating probabilities of moderate earthquakes in Kanto, Japan, in Proceedings of The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, January 9-13, 2006, ISM Report on Research and Education, ISM, Tokyo, Japan, 23, 116-119. IMOTO, M. (2006): Earthquake probability based on multidisciplinary observations with correlations, Earth Planets Space, 57, 1447-1454. IMOTO, M. (2007): Information gain of a model based on multidisciplinary observations with correlations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B05306, doi: 10.1029/ 2006JB004662. IMOTO, M. and N. YAMAMOTO (2006): Verification test of the mean event size model for moderate earthquakes in the Kanto region, central Japan, Tectonophysics, 417, 131-140. RHOADES, D. and F. EVISON (1979): Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor, Geophys. J. R.astr. Soc., 59, 43-56. UTSU, T. (1977): Probalities in earthquake prediction, Zisin II, 30, 179-185, (in Japanese). UTSU, T. (1982): Probabilities in earthquake prediction (the second paper), Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., 57, 499-524, (in Japanese).en
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.contributor.authorImoto, M.en
dc.contributor.departmentNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki-ken, Japanen
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.openairecristype Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
Appears in Collections:Annals of Geophysics
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