A computer model for volcanic ashfallout and assessment of subsequent hazard

Abstract

HAZMAP is a FORTRAN code for the solution of the equations of diffusion, transport and sedimentation of small particles, in order to model the dispersion of ash generated by a convective column. The model was developed simplifying the advection–diffusion sedimentation equation for volcanic ash transport in the atmosphere from three to two dimensions and using a semi-analytical computational method to greatly reduce the required computer time and memory. HAZMAP can be used either to simulate the mass distribution of the deposit if a wind profile is given (‘deposit mode’), or to define the probability of a given accumulation of mass on the ground if a statistical set of wind profiles is provided (‘‘probability mode’’). The model needs the definition of the physical system (spatial distribution of the point sources, total erupted mass, settling velocity distribution, wind velocity profile, atmospheric turbulent diffusion coefficients), and of a computational grid. The output values of mass accumulation on the ground or the probability of mass accumulation are computed on a regular grid, suitable for further analysis.