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Authors: Marzocchi, W.* 
Selva, J.* 
Sandri, L.* 
Title: Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting: the Bayesian Event Tree approach
Issue Date: 2008
Keywords: Bayesian Event Tree
Probabilistic volcanic hazard
Probabilistic eruption Forecasting
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
Abstract: The purpose of this report is to discuss in detail the importance and prerogatives of quantitative volcanic hazard assessment and to describe the main features of a Bayesian model designed to achieve this goal. Ideas, models and results come out from the work made in the framework of the INGV-DPC V4 project, and partially from the application of the technique to Campi Flegrei (V3_2) and Vesuvius (V3_4). Here, we examine in depth the practical and philosophical implications of the approach, and report only a brief summary of the technical details that can be found on the cited literature.
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