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Authors: | Marzocchi, W. | Title: | Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales. | Journal: | Annals of Geophysics | Series/Report no.: | 2-3/51 (2008) | Issue Date: | Apr-2008 | Keywords: | earthquake forecasting | Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | Abstract: | The main goal of this work is to review the scientific researches carried out before and after the Umbria-Marche sequence related to the earthquake forecasting/prediction in Italy. In particular, I focus the attention on models that aim addressing three main practical questions: was (is) Umbria-Marche a region with high probability of occurrence of a destructive earthquake? Was a precursory activity recorded before the mainshock(s)? What was our capability to model the spatio-temporal-magnitude evolution of that seismic sequence? The models are reviewed pointing out what we have learned after the Umbria-Marche earthquakes, in terms of physical understanding of earthquake occurrence process, and of improving our capability to forecast earthquakes and to track in real-time seismic sequences. |
Appears in Collections: | Annals of Geophysics Article published / in press |
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