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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/3973
Authors: | Barraclogh, D. R.* De Santis, A.* |
Title: | Some possible evidence for a chaotic geomagnetic field from observational data | Journal: | Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors | Series/Report no.: | 3-4 / 99 (1997) | Publisher: | Elsevier | Issue Date: | Feb-1997 | Keywords: | geomagnetic field chaos non-linear forecasting approach |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.02. Geomagnetic field variations and reversals |
Abstract: | The behaviour of the geomagnetic field as observed almost continuously at three European locations over the last 130 years is investigated by means of a non-linear forecasting approach. The analysis of the data in terms of first-differences (secular variation) of the horizontal magnetic components made in phase space with the simplex technique seems to exclude the pre-eminence of any stochastic or periodic behaviour. The dimensionality of the underlying non-linear process and the corresponding largest positive Lyapunov exponent are estimated. The results give some evidence that the geomagnetic field evolves as a non-linear chaotic system with unpredictable behaviour after times greater than a few years, confirming the common practice of updating global models of the geomagnetic field every 5 years. |
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