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Authors: Montaldo, V.* 
Faccioli, E.* 
Zonno, G.* 
Akinci, A.* 
Malagnini, L.* 
Title: Treatment of ground-motion predictive relationships for the reference seismic hazard map of Italy
Issue Date: 2005
Series/Report no.: /9 (2005)
Keywords: epicentral and Joyner-Boore distance
epistemic uncertainty,
predictive relationships
seismic hazard mapping
scaling laws
volcanic regions
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
Abstract: In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions) was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure, in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities.
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