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Authors: Herault, A.* 
Vicari, A.* 
Ciraudo, A.* 
Del Negro, C.* 
Title: Forecasting Lava Flow Hazard during the 2006 Etna Eruption: Using the Magflow Cellular Automata Model
Issue Date: 2008
DOI: 10.1016/j.cageo.2007.10.008
Keywords: Lava Flow
Etna volcano
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks 
05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation 
Abstract: The MAGFLOW cellular automata model was able to fairly accurately reproduce the time of the lava flow advance during the 2006 Etna eruption leading to very plausible flow predictions. MAGFLOW is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the lava flow path over some time interval from the immediate future to a long-time forecast. Major discrepancies between the observed and simulated paths occurred in the early phase of the 2006 eruption due to an underestimation of the initial flow rate, and at the time of the overlapping with the 2004-2005 lava flow. Very good representations of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows were obtained when we adopt a time-varying effusion rate and include the 2004-2005 lava flow field in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography.
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