Prediction of Ground Motion and Loss Scenarios for Selected Infrastructues Systems in European Urban Environments

Abstract

computational tools needed for developing scenarios of earthquake ground motions and of ensuing damage to representative urban Infrastructure Systems (IS), as well as with illustrative examples of application to cities in Europe and neighbouring countries. The material illustrated is the outcome of the work carried out in LESSLOSS Sub-Project SP11, devoted to the title subject. Of main concern are the water and natural gas distribution networks and the sewage networks, because these are, with the transportation network, by far the most extensive IS in cities and, especially the first one, often the most vulnerable. Also, emphasis is placed more on the tools for achieving a scenario and on their application, rather than on the economic loss evaluation. As a partial justification of the belated development and interest in seismic IS damage, it is recalled that destructive earthquakes of recent decades in Europe did not cause large scale damage to IS. In addition to describing tools for the practical construction of damage scenarios for IS, the report also highlights some innovative research trends in the field, especially the methods leading to the estimation of pipeline damage on the basis of the peak ground strains generated by the propagation of seismic waves, which in turn needs the support of advanced 2D or 3D wave propagation modelling. The main sections of the report are devoted to: - Calculation of seismic ground motions in an area, both of advanced and simplified engineering level, with applications for Thessaloniki and Düzce (Sect 2); - Outline of the buried pipelines response during earthquakes, illustrating the chief elements at play on the side of the seismic loading effects and typical damage (Sect. 3); - Vulnerability representations for IS components, mostly those consisting of buried pipelines (Sect. 4); - Typical features of IS inventories, with examples (Sect 5); - Damage evaluation tools at urban scenario and single pipeline level (Sect. 6); - Damage scenario applications for Thessaloniki and Düzce (Sect 7); - Conclusions.