Volcanic hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera

Abstract

Previous and new results from probabilistic approaches based on available volcanological data from real eruptions of Campi Flegrei, are assembled in a comprehensive assessment of volcanic hazards at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to compare the volcanic hazards related to the different types of events. Hazard maps based on a very wide set of numerical simulations, produced using field and laboratory data as input parameters relative to the whole range of fallout and pyroclastic-flow events and their relative occurrence, are presented. The results allow us to quantitatively evaluate and compare the hazard related to pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) in the Campi Flegrei area and its surroundings, including the city of Naples. Due to the dominant wind directions, the hazard from fallout mostly affects the area east of the caldera, and the caldera itself, with the level of probability and expected thickness decreasing with distance from the caldera and outside the eastern sectors. The hazard from PDCs decrease roughly radially with distance from the caldera centre and is strongly controlled by the topographic relief, which produces an effective barrier to propagation of PDCs to the east and northeast, areas which include metropolitan Naples. The main result is that the metropolitan area of Naples would be directly exposed to both fallout and PDCs. Moreover, the level of probability for critical tephra accumulation by fallout is relatively high, even for moderate-scale events, while, due to the presence of topographic barriers, the hazard from PDCs is only moderate and mostly associated with the largest events.