Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1737| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.authorall | Crampin, S.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK; also at Edinburgh Anisotropy Project, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Zatsepin, S. V.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Browitt, C. W. A.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Keilis-Borok, V. I.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; also at Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Suyehiro, K.; JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Gao, Y.; Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Walter, L.; Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2006-09-28T11:48:26Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2006-09-28T11:48:26Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2006-09-28T11:48:26Z | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1737 | en |
| dc.description | Please note that the figures are intended to be published in black and write (with no colour). It is particularly appropriate to publish this paper to Annals of Geophysics as the second Stress-Monitoring Site is scheduled to begin operation in SE Sicily as part of the SICIS Project. | en |
| dc.description.abstract | A new understanding of rock deformation allows the accumulation of stress before earthquakes to be monitored by using shear-wave splitting to assess stress-induced changes to microcrack geometry. Using swarms of small earthquakes as the source of shear-waves, such stress accumulations have been recognised with hindsight before some fifteen earthquakes worldwide. On one occasion the time, magnitude, and fault-break of an M 5 earthquake was successfully stress-forecast in a comparatively narrow magnitude/time window. However, suitable swarms of small earthquakes are very uncommon, and routine forecasting requires measurements of controlled-source observations at bore-hole Stress-Monitoring Sites (SMSs). A prototype SMS confirmed that both science and technology are effective for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes, and the sensitivity is such that a network of SMSs, on a 400 km-grid, say, could stress-forecast all M ≥ 5 earthquakes, that is all damaging earthquakes, within the grid. This paper suggests that a Global Earthquake Monitoring System (GEMS) could forecast all damaging earthquakes in both developing and developed countries worldwide. | en |
| dc.format.extent | 2040832 bytes | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/msword | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.subject | forecasting damaging earthquakes | en |
| dc.subject | GEMS | en |
| dc.subject | Global network of Earthquake stress-Monitoring Sites | en |
| dc.subject | shear-wave splitting | en |
| dc.subject | the New Geophysics | en |
| dc.title | GEMS: the opportunity for stress-forecasting all damaging earthquakes worldwide | en |
| dc.type | manuscript | en |
| dc.description.status | Submitted | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk | en |
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BRODOV (1996): Abnormal shear-wave polarizations as indicators of pressures and over pressures, 58th Conf. EAGE, Amsterdam, Ext. Abst., O38. CRAMPIN, S., H. J. ROWLANDS, S. V. ZATSEPIN, B. J. SMART, K. EDLMANN and B. CRAWFORD (1997): Predicting the response to effective stress of cores with different pore fluids, 59th Conf. EAGE, Geneva, Ext. Abst., 2, CO22. CRAMPIN, S., T. VOLTI and R. STEFÁNSSON (1999a): A successfully stress-forecast earthquake, Geophys. J. Int., 138, F1-F5. CRAMPIN, S., S. V. ZATSEPIN, H. J. ROWLANDS, B. J. SMART and J. M. SOMERVILLE, J. (1999b): APE-modelling of fluid/rock deformation of sandstone cores in laboratory stress-cells, 61th Conf. EAGE, Helsinki, Ext. Abst., 1, 2-08. CRAMPIN, S., T. VOLTI, S. CHASTIN and A. GUDMUNDSSON (2002): Indication of high pore-fluid pressures in a seismically-active fault zone, Geophys. J. Int., 151, F1-F5. CRAMPIN, S., S. CHASTIN and Y. GAO (2003.): Shear-wave splitting in a critical crust: III - preliminary report of multi-variable measurements in active tectonics, J. Appl. Geophys., 54, 265-277. CRAMPIN, S., S. PEACOCK, Y. GAO and S. CHASTIN (2004): The scatter of time-delays in shear-wave splitting above small earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 156, 39-44. DAVIS, T. L., R. D. BENSON, S. L. ROCHE and D. TALLEY (1997): 4-D 3-C seismology and dynamic reservoir characterization - a geophysical renaissance, 67th Ann. Mtg., SEG, Dallas, Exp. Abst., 1, 880-882; see also 883-885, 886-889. FRANKEL, A. D. (2003): Comment of 'Should Memphis build on California's earthquakes', by S., STEIN, J. TOMASELLO, A. NEWMAN, and Reply, EOS, 84, 29, 271-273. GAO, Y. and S. CRAMPIN (2004): Observations of stress relaxation before earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 157, 578-582. *GAO, Y. and S. CRAMPIN (2006): A further stress-forecast earthquake (with hindsight), where migration of source earthquakes causes anomalies in shear-wave polarisations, Tectonophysics, in press. GAO, Y., P. WANG, S. ZHENG, M. WANG and Y.-T. CHEN (1998): Temporal changes in shear-wave splitting at an isolated swarm of small earthquakes in 1992 near Dongfang, Hainan Island, Southern China, Geophys. J. Int., 135, 102-112. HEFFER, K. J. and T. G. BEVAN (1990): Scaling relationships in natural fractures, Soc. Pet. Eng., Paper 20981. JENSEN H. J. (1998): Self-organized criticality, Cambridge Univ. Press. KING, M. S., N. A. CHAUDHRY and S. AHMED (1994): Experimental ultrasonic velocities and permeability of sandstones with aligned cracks, 61th Conf. EAGE, Vienna, Ext. Abst., P113. LIU, Y., S. CRAMPIN and I. MAIN (1997): Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California, Geophys. J. Int., 130, 771-785. PEACOCK, S., S. CRAMPIN, D. C. BOOTH and J. B. FLETCHER (1988): Shear-wave splitting in the Anza seismic gap, Southern California: temporal variations as possible precursors. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 3339-3356. RALEIGH, C. B., J. D. HEALY and J. D. BREDEHOEFT (1976): An experiment in earthquake control of Rangely, Colorado, Science, 191, 1230-1237. SOTHCOTT, J., O'HARA, S. G., KHAZANEHDARI, J. AND MCCANN, C., 2000a. From sonic to ultrasonic - the acoustic properties of reservoir sandstones. 61th Conf. EAGE, Glasgow, Ext. Abst., D-39. SOTHCOTT, J., C. McCANN and S. G. O'HARA (2000b): The influence of two different pore fluids on the acoustic properties of reservoir sandstones at sonic and ultrasonic frequencies, 70th Ann. Mtg., SEG, Calgary, Exp. Abst., 2, 1883-1886. STEIN, S., J. TOMASELLO and A. NEWMAN (2003): Should Memphis build on California's earthquakes, EOS, 84, 29, 177 & 184-185. SUYEHIRO, K. (2002): Illuminating Earth's mantle and core: a new challenge for ODO, in ed. BECKER, K., Achievements and opportunities of Scientific Ocean Drilling, Joides J., Spec. Issue, 28, 55-60. *VOLTI, T. and S. CRAMPIN (2003a): A four-year study of shear-wave splitting in Iceland: 1. Background and preliminary analysis, in New insights into structural interpretation and modelling, ed. NIEUWLAND, D. A., Geol. Soc. Lond., Spec. Publ., 212, 117-133. *VOLTI, T. and CRAMPIN (2003b): A four-year study of shear-wave splitting in Iceland: 2. Temporal changes before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, in New insights into structural interpretation and modelling, ed. NIEUWLAND, D. A., Geol. Soc. Lond., Spec. Publ., 212, 135-149. *WU, J., Y. GAO, S. CRAMPIN, T. VOLTI, T. and Y.-T. CHEN (2006): Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress-forecast (with hindsight), Geophys. J. Int., 166, 1293-1298. ZATSEPIN, S. V. and S. CRAMPIN (1996). Stress-induced coupling between anisotropic permeability and shear-wave splitting, 58th Conf. EAGE, Amsterdam, Ext. Abst., C030. ZATSEPIN, S. V. and S. CRAMPIN (1997): Modelling the compliance of crustal rock: I - response of shear-wave splitting to differential stress, Geophys. J. Int., 129, 477-494. *Paper/preprint available at http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/scrampin/opinion/. | en |
| dc.description.fulltext | reserved | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Crampin, S. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Zatsepin, S. V. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Browitt, C. W. A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Keilis-Borok, V. I. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Suyehiro, K. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Gao, Y. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Walter, L. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK; also at Edinburgh Anisotropy Project, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.department | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.department | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | en |
| dc.contributor.department | International Institute of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; also at Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA | en |
| dc.contributor.department | JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA | en |
| item.openairetype | manuscript | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK; also at Edinburgh Anisotropy Project, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Manuscripts | |
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