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Authors: Crampin, S.* 
Zatsepin, S. V.* 
Browitt, C. W. A.* 
Keilis-Borok, V. I.* 
Suyehiro, K.* 
Gao, Y.* 
Walter, L.* 
Title: GEMS: the opportunity for stress-forecasting all damaging earthquakes worldwide
Issue Date: 28-Sep-2006
Keywords: forecasting damaging earthquakes
Global network of Earthquake stress-Monitoring Sites
shear-wave splitting
the New Geophysics
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
Abstract: A new understanding of rock deformation allows the accumulation of stress before earthquakes to be monitored by using shear-wave splitting to assess stress-induced changes to microcrack geometry. Using swarms of small earthquakes as the source of shear-waves, such stress accumulations have been recognised with hindsight before some fifteen earthquakes worldwide. On one occasion the time, magnitude, and fault-break of an M 5 earthquake was successfully stress-forecast in a comparatively narrow magnitude/time window. However, suitable swarms of small earthquakes are very uncommon, and routine forecasting requires measurements of controlled-source observations at bore-hole Stress-Monitoring Sites (SMSs). A prototype SMS confirmed that both science and technology are effective for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes, and the sensitivity is such that a network of SMSs, on a 400 km-grid, say, could stress-forecast all M ≥ 5 earthquakes, that is all damaging earthquakes, within the grid. This paper suggests that a Global Earthquake Monitoring System (GEMS) could forecast all damaging earthquakes in both developing and developed countries worldwide.
Description: Please note that the figures are intended to be published in black and write (with no colour). It is particularly appropriate to publish this paper to Annals of Geophysics as the second Stress-Monitoring Site is scheduled to begin operation in SE Sicily as part of the SICIS Project.
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