Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Authors: Mancini, Simone* 
Segou, Margarita* 
Werner, Maximilian* 
Parsons, Tom* 
Beroza, Gregory* 
Chiaraluce, Lauro* 
Title: On the Use of High-Resolution and Deep-Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations
Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 
Series/Report no.: /127 (2022)
Publisher: Wiley-AGU
Issue Date: Nov-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022JB025202
Keywords: Coulomb stress transfer; Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence; high‐resolution seismic catalogs; operational earthquake forecasting; short‐term earthquake forecast
Abstract: Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced seismic catalogs feeding into established short-term earthquake forecasting protocols may result in higher predictive skill. We consider three enhanced catalogs for the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence, featuring a bulk completeness lower by at least two magnitude units compared to the real-time catalog and an improved hypocentral resolution. We use them to inform a set of physical Coulomb Rate-and-State (CRS) and statistical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to forecast the space-time occurrence of M3+ events during the first 6 months of the sequence. We track model performance using standard likelihood-based metrics and compare their skill against the best-performing CRS and ETAS models among those developed with the real-time catalog. We find that while the incorporation of the triggering contributions from new small magnitude detections of the enhanced catalogs is beneficial for both types of forecasts, these models do not significantly outperform their respective near real-time benchmarks. To explore the reasons behind this result, we perform targeted sensitivity tests that show how (a) the typical spatial discretizations of forecast experiments ( ≥ 2 km) hamper the ability of models to capture highly localized secondary triggering patterns and (b) differences in earthquake parameters (i.e., magnitude and hypocenters) reported in different catalogs can affect forecast evaluation. These findings will contribute toward improving forecast model design and evaluation strategies for next-generation seismic catalogs.
Appears in Collections:Article published / in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
67_Mancini_EtAl_JGR_2022.pdfOpen Access published article2.02 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

checked on Mar 31, 2023


checked on Mar 31, 2023

Google ScholarTM