Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1566
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dc.contributor.authorallCuomo, V.; Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, IMAAA/CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallLapenna, V.; Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, IMAAA/CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallMacchiato, M.; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università Federico II, Napoli, Italyen
dc.contributor.authorallSerio, C.; Dipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell'Ambiente, Università della Basilicata, Potenza, Italyen
dc.date.accessioned2006-09-11T07:54:35Zen
dc.date.available2006-09-11T07:54:35Zen
dc.date.issued1997-03en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/1566en
dc.description.abstractThe time dynamics of geoelectrical precursory time series has been investigated and a method to discriminate chaotic behaviour in geoelectrical precursory time series is proposed. It allows us to detect low-dimensional chaos when the only information about the time series comes from the time series themselves. The short-term predictability of these time series is evaluated using two possible forecasting approaches: global autoregressive approximation and local autoregressive approximation. The first views the data as a realization of a linear stochastic process, whereas the second considers the data points as a realization of a deterministic process, supposedly non-linear. The comparison of the predictive skill of the two techniques is a test to discriminate between low-dimensional chaos and random dynamics. The analyzed time series are geoelectrical measurements recorded by an automatic station located in Tito (Southern Italy) in one of the most seismic areas of the Mediterranean region. Our findings are that the global (linear) approach is superior to the local one and the physical system governing the phenomena of electrical nature is characterized by a large number of degrees of freedom. Power spectra of the filtered time series follow a P(f) = F-a scaling law: they exhibit the typical behaviour of a broad class of fractal stochastic processes and they are a signature of the self-organized systems.en
dc.format.extent4405423 bytesen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2/40 (1997)en
dc.subjectself-potential time seriesen
dc.subjectchaosen
dc.subjectdynamical systemen
dc.subjectearthquake predictionen
dc.titleAutoregressive models as a tool to discriminate chaos from randomness in geoelectrical time series: an application to earthquake predictionen
dc.typearticleen
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probabilityen
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.10. Instruments and techniquesen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextopenen
dc.contributor.authorCuomo, V.en
dc.contributor.authorLapenna, V.en
dc.contributor.authorMacchiato, M.en
dc.contributor.authorSerio, C.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, IMAAA/CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, IMAAA/CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università Federico II, Napoli, Italyen
dc.contributor.departmentDipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell'Ambiente, Università della Basilicata, Potenza, Italyen
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.openairetypearticle-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.author.deptDipartimento di Ingegneria e Fisica dell'Ambiente, Università della Basilicata, Potenza, Italy-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale, CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy-
crisitem.author.deptDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Università degli Studi di Napoli «Federico II», Italy-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
Appears in Collections:Annals of Geophysics
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